Inside Out | Five reasons new US Indo-Pacific economic strategy will struggle to find support
- While there is interest among regional governments, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework faces questions about its viability
- Biden’s ability to deliver, incentives for joining, who gets invited, whether it offers any distinct value, and the role of China are all in doubt
What it will add to the existing blizzard of acronyms – Apec, Asean, RCEP, CPTPP – is, as yet, unclear. Also unclear is whether it will be economic rather than a political and security-focused complement to the Quad, whether it will embrace India and whether it will contain any incentives for Asian economies to join. What is resoundingly clear is its role in excluding and containing China.
The Biden team says the IPEF will be built on four pillars: fair and resilient trade; resilient supply chains; building infrastructure and cooperation on clean energy and decarbonisation; and cooperation on tax and anti-corruption efforts. It will be overseen by the US Trade Representative’s office and the Department of Commerce. The aim is to complete the agreement by November next year at the US-chaired Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) leaders’ meeting.
But even before the IPEF is conceived, hard questions have been raised about its viability. First, there is concern over the ability of Biden’s team to deliver any international trade deal unless it explicitly generates jobs at home and export opportunities for US manufacturers.