Opinion | Three scenarios for the South China Sea: the good, the bad and the ugly
- Between the unrealistic – peaceful coexistence between the US and China and the joint promotion of Asean economic interests – and the unthinkable – an escalation of tensions and risk of proxy war – lies a scenario for the South China Sea that can work for all
“The future of each of our nations – and indeed the world – depends on a free and open Indo-Pacific enduring and flourishing in the decades ahead,” US President Joe Biden said last September.
The Indo-Pacific region extends from the Indian Ocean to the US Pacific coast, and from Japan to Australia and New Zealand. At its geopolitical core lies the South China Sea.
Here, the strategic and foreign policy interests of China and America collide, as do their definitions of the “international order”. Even regional disputes over rocks, maritime space and the resources therein – like petroleum and fisheries – have become fused with the US-China contest for regional dominance.
Currently, the situation in the South China Sea is a leaking status quo in which international incidents punctuate otherwise relative stability. But this status quo is fragile and under tremendous pressure from the US-China struggle. Will it hold?
I am not Nostradamus. But barring a paradigm-changing event and given the current situation and trends, I can sketch three possible scenarios in the South China Sea. I call them the “good”, the “bad” and the “ugly”.
In the “good” scenario, a largely united Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) seizes the metaphorical bull by the horns and takes a stand against both the US and China’s military build-up and posturing.
