Opinion | Why the US and China are unlikely to strike a grand bargain soon

US President Joe Biden’s whirlwind visit to East Asia in May reaped the expected rich harvest in terms of his administration’s policy to “shape the strategic environment around Beijing”, as summed up by Secretary of State Antony Blinken in his speech last month on the US’ strategic approach to China.

Both South Korea and Japan rallied to Biden’s call for closer cooperation and coordination against China. Under the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which was officially launched during Biden’s trip, the US and 12 other countries hope to redistribute China’s share of the region’s supply chain among themselves.

But none of the above was as dramatic as Biden’s pronouncement in Tokyo on May 23 that the US would confront Beijing militarily if it took action to recover Taiwan. This is the third time he has made a similar “gaffe”.

China hit back, notably over Taiwan. The climax was Chinese defence minister Wei Fenghe’s declaration at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, both during his face-to-face meeting with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin on June 10 and in his keynote speech on June 12, that China will have no choice but “to fight at all costs” and “fight to the very end” for Taiwan.

At his meeting with US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan in Luxembourg on June 13, China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi urged the US to turn promises into action and abandon its illusions over Taiwan. On the same day, China’s foreign ministry spokesman shot down US claims that the Taiwan Strait is an “international waterway”.