As nuclear power makes a comeback, China is poised to be the net-zero hero

While Europe may need to reconsider nuclear power amid a global energy crisis, China is already ahead of the pack
With more countries hastening their transition to clean energy, dependence on China will only grow. But for many Western politicians and industrialists, it is of concern that all the roads to net zero travel through China

David Dodwell

Published: 12:30am, 11 Jul, 2022

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If the task of getting to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 looked tough in Glasgow in November last year, then a combination of the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, disruption of world oil and gas supply chains and rising inflation pushing many of the world’s largest economies towards recession make prospects grimmer.

It is a lucky government with time to spare a thought for net zero, let alone the multiple billions of hard dollars needed to get there.

As McKinsey and Company reported in May, the pandemic “has caused an estimated 25 million deaths, increased global public debt by 28 per cent to 256 per cent of GDP, shrunk global GDP by 3.3 per cent, and given rise to rapidly increasing inflation”.

Even before the invasion of Ukraine, “the world was not on a path to achieve net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050”, it noted, adding: “It seems clear at this point the war will complicate the transition’s path in the short term.”

Still, McKinsey argued that throughout history, conflicts have often accelerated energy transitions, and that the extreme energy shock facing the European Union, and Germany in particular, “could kick net-zero transition efforts into higher gear”.

I think we will need to wait for COP27, the UN climate conference to be held in November in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt, to take a view on that.

Meanwhile, some climate activists are focused on a silver lining. Those European governments procrastinating over diluting their dependence on Russian oil and gas have been jolted into action. Defence budgets have had to jump, but so too have budgets to boost renewable energy development.

02:11

Oil prices skyrocket around the world as result of Russia-Ukraine conflict, sanctions

Perhaps most striking, advocates for nuclear power have been given fresh voice. Last month, International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director Fatih Birol said at the launch of the “Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions” report: “In today’s context of the global energy crisis, skyrocketing fossil fuel prices, energy security challenges and ambitious climate commitments, I believe nuclear power has a unique opportunity to stage a comeback.”

This comes after a decade in which nuclear power became a lost cause in many countries.

After the 2011 Fukushima accident, Japan was forced to stop its nuclear programme and Germany decided to close all of its nuclear reactors in what seems today an act of foolhardy haste.

01:50

Fukushima evacuees return home for first overnight stay in over 10 years since nuclear disaster

The last of these is expected to shut at the end of this year – terrible timing as the shutdown of gas pipelines from Russia sets the scene for power shortages and a lot of very cold homes this winter. Spain, Sweden and Switzerland also have plans to phase out nuclear power.

Apart from alarm over Fukushima, the nuclear story in both France and the United Kingdom has been one of massive delays and embarrassing cost overruns.

The cost in Europe of nuclear power per kilowatt has averaged US$6,600 per the past decade, more than double China’s average cost of US$2,800. While China has on average taken six years to complete its nuclear plants, the average in the UK has been 10 years and some plants elsewhere have infamously taken more than 15 years.

02:13

Nuclear steam solution to China’s smoggy winters gets a warm welcome

As Jonathan Porritt, a UK environmental campaigner who proudly boasts he has been anti-nuclear since 1974, says, Britain’s nuclear story seems to have been one of “endless hype” and a “constantly underperforming record”.

Meanwhile China, which Bloomberg calls nuclear power’s “last great believer”, reportedly plans to spend US$440 billion on 150 reactors in the next 15 years. This amounts to about 147 gigawatts of capacity, more than the rest of the world has built in the past 35 years.

China reportedly hopes to sell a further 30 reactors to members of the Belt and Road Initiative, and to replace all 2,990 coal-fired plants as part of plans to be carbon neutral by 2060.

Alongside its ambitious plans to develop nuclear power, in particular through next-generation mini nuclear reactors of up to 300MW each, China also leads the world in wind power, solar power, electric-powered cars and batteries. It also seems set to lead in the development of green hydrogen for road vehicles and the manufacture of cement, steel and chemicals, all of which emit huge amounts of CO2.

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China’s first hybrid photovoltaic plant generates power day and night using solar and tidal power

Such is China’s lead that the IEA and some Western governments have raised the alarm over the world’s heavy reliance on a suite of renewable technologies now driven by China. Only last week, IEA’s Birol praised China for having sharply brought down the cost of solar panels but warned that China’s share of all the key manufacturing stages now exceeded 80 per cent.

For many Western politicians and industrialists, it is of deep concern that all the roads to net zero travel through China: it is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and therefore has the most carbon dioxide to get rid of. It also has sharply rising energy needs, and must meet these higher needs while cutting its emissions. Moreover, it is under huge pressure to make sure its energy is cheap. Inevitably, the more it succeeds, the more likely it is to lead the world in a wide range of technologies that Western countries want to be leaders in themselves.

So for many in the West, environmentalists or not, it seems there is only one issue more troubling than failing to get to net zero, and that is the concern that it will be China that leads us there.

David Dodwell researches and writes about global, regional and Hong Kong challenges from a Hong Kong point of view