If Pelosi really wants peace to prevail in Taiwan, she’ll stay away
- The best thing for Taipei’s security would be for Washington to do everything it can to repair ties with Beijing, instead of constantly provoking it
- If that is too much to hope for, the next best thing would be for US politicians to simply do nothing
Sure, when it comes to the moralism of the average American politician, sensitivity to other political cultures is a pretty alien concept. But there was an easy way out before this affair got dicey.
If only the government of the People’s Republic, albeit with an insincere grin, had put on a happy face over the proposed visit to Taipei next month by Pelosi, the speaker of US House of Representatives – like it was sort of nothing. Maybe even invite her to Beijing afterwards?
True, such a clever manoeuvre would have taken self-confidence and cosmopolitan savvy, but it would have frustrated anti-China hawks. Alas, such slick moves are not the hallmark of the elite currently holding sway in Beijing.
It would have been even better for peace in East Asia if the strong-minded politician (think Margaret Thatcher, tilting slightly left) had thought better of proposing the visit in the first place, given the terrible timing.
Even so, a big fat PLA military slap across the face of Taiwan, if it came to that, would risk triggering searing corollary damage on the internal psyche and exterior self-image of China.
While this is not Beijing’s preferred move at all, leaders may be getting uneasy, egged on by blowhards in the US Congress who assume the right to counsel China on how to handle its political business.
For her part, Pelosi – the first and only woman to lead Congress’ House of Representatives in its 233-year history – well reflects the politics of her San Francisco home. She has held down the powerful speaker’s position for years and has represented parts of California continuously since 1987.
Many of her Chinese-American constituents are anti-Communist and anti-reunification. From her perspective in representing that constituency, her anti-Beijing views are the epitome of political correctness. Years ago, I spent almost a full morning listening by long-distance call to her keen views on Taiwan. I can confidently tell you that, on this matter, as was said of Thatcher, this lady is not for turning.
There is only one comfortable way for a high-profile American politician to enjoy a pleasant politico-business trip to Taipei without causing dangerous political turbulence.
But the provocative hubris of the US stymies that relationship by seeming to resent the presence of a strong China. Should that psychology remain dominant, Washington’s relations with Beijing – and others – will roil endlessly.
Beijing can afford to adopt a peaceful and patient approach to Taiwan
The Confucian Institutes that Beijing offers US campuses are often written off as little more than spy nests. Disarmament conferences are for the foolish and naive; don’t even bother to verify because there’s no possibility of even minimum mutual trust.
Pelosi is anything but unsophisticated, but with cockeyed optimism I do wish she would first visit Beijing if she must go. That’s not going to happen, of course. Maybe the Taipei trip won’t happen, either. Given the roller-derby relationship between the US and China, perhaps the best we can hope for is that nothing happens.
Veteran columnist Tom Plate is Distinguished Scholar of Asian and Asian-American Studies at LMU, a Phi Beta Kappa university in Los Angeles, and vice-president of the Pacific Century Institute