Outside In | Even without military action or a regional war, the prospects for Taiwan’s people and economy look gloomy
- Amid the crisis over Pelosi’s visit, negligible attention has been paid to the future of Taiwan’s people, companies or economy – the focus has been on the Sino-US geopolitical struggle
- Beijing has long hoped Hong Kong’s ‘one country, two systems’ would provide a model for reunification with Taiwan, but after decades of efforts, the goal appears no closer
The “one country, two systems” principle that first formally emerged in 1984 as a foundation for Hong Kong’s 1997 reunification was always a bigger idea than applied just to Hong Kong (or Macau). The “castle on the hill” was always Taiwan, China’s “renegade province”.
A scenario-planner tasked with predicting Taiwan’s future, especially in the wake of Pelosi’s visit and Beijing’s war games around Taiwan, would find it hard to create a scenario that is in any way promising – for China, the US, or Taiwan’s people. The community of 23.2 million – smaller than the population of Shanghai – has become a hapless pawn in a globally dangerous game between China and the US that ultimately takes little account of their livelihoods.
Scan the thousands of articles on Pelosi’s visit and its aftermath, and what stands out is that negligible attention is being paid to the future of Taiwan’s people, companies or economy. All media focus is on the Sino-US geopolitical struggle.