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Outside In | No reason to fret over China’s shrinking population with solutions already in the works
- The outpouring of concern is simplistic and wrong-headed in many ways: a shrinking population is good for the planet, the fall is merely a rounding error and government efforts to address issues are under way
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News that China’s population fell in 2022 by an estimated 850,000 people triggered a predictable crisis narrative. A headline in The New York Times said “China’s population falls, heralding a demographic crisis”. Reuters talked of “alarm” at China’s demographic crisis. The Washington Post elaborated that this was “a clear sign that the country is facing a looming demographic crisis worsened by decades of coercive policy”.
Even in the South China Morning Post, one writer fell victim to the panic, saying, “The decline in overall population is only the tip of the iceberg”. He said China’s demographic crisis was “a watershed moment in Chinese history”. Some said India’s population was now set to rise above that of China, making India a clear winner.
I can’t help thinking back to Mark Twain, who is widely believed to have complained that reports of his death were an exaggeration. There are so many ways in which this outpouring of concern is simplistic and wrong-headed that it is tough to know where to start.
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Perhaps the first and most visceral point is that any news of population falling should be celebrated. As Mary Gallagher at the University of Michigan International Institute tweeted: “For both climate change and the environment, a smaller population is a benefit, not a curse.”
I also recall the 2017 statement by scientists from around the world, warning humanity that we are jeopardising our future by not recognising “continued rapid population growth as a primary driver behind many ecological and even societal threats”.
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Second is that a reported fall of 850,000 is little more than a rounding error for a population of more than 1.4 billion. This is not just a quibble – highly respected academics such as Yi Fuxian at the University of Wisconsin-Madison have for years been arguing that China’s population is in fact closer to 1.28 billion people than 1.4 billion.
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