Ukraine war: time for China to use its influence with Putin to create room for peace
- If China chooses to double down on an uncritical alliance with Russia and supply it with military material, it risks US and EU sanctions
- The better option would be for China to use its leverage and closeness with Russia to broker an end to the war
At this crucial point, China’s leadership has two branching pathways ahead of it, and it is unclear which President Xi Jinping will select, although the signs are modestly positive.
Let’s not forget the scale of these trade flows. In 2021, the European Union imports from China were worth €472 billion (US$498 billion) while exports to China were worth €223 billion. Last year, US imports from China were worth US$537 billion while exports were worth US$154 billion.
Compare these massive figures with China’s trade with Russia – worth a relatively paltry US$190 billion in 2022 – one-seventh of the flows China could put in jeopardy by going all-in behind Russia, a declining power, and an unreliable President Putin.
Of all nations, China has arguably benefited most from opening to world trade, the strengthening of globalisation and the rules-based interconnected system. It stands to be hurt the most if it goes down the wrong path.
Surely it is in China’s best interests – and those of the US and EU – to avoid the war further undermining and dismantling a globalised world that is already exhibiting the strain of geopolitical competition and disputation?
China has a better second path available: to use its leverage and closeness with Russia to broker an exit from this disaster and an eventual end to the war.
China’s leadership should now go further and offer to support serious negotiations, possibly mediated by a third neutral party, such as the Swiss. In doing so, China can demonstrate it is not only a rising but also a great power. It should use its influence with Russia and Putin to create real space for peace talks.
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Thus, just as US president Theodore Roosevelt secured the Treaty of Portsmouth in 1905 and so ended the Russo-Japanese war, President Xi could demonstrate his global foresight and growing geopolitical power and influence by now pressing President Putin to negotiate, in good faith, an exit before yet more lives are lost and even greater global risks loom.
This is China’s chance to be an honest effective broker of a balanced acceptable deal that Russia and Ukraine both need. Acting as a broker of talks, China can concretely demonstrate the country’s commitment to global peace and prosperity. In doing so the country could come away from negotiations stronger and more influential. This can be the outcome for China even if the negotiations are difficult, protracted, strenuous and fitful, as they most certainly will be.
To conclude, if China wants to lead, the country should do so on Ukraine by creating pressure for and room for a deal, rather than siding with the aggressor and sliding into being an active military supplier to Russia.
Great leaders take risks. They push people together. They press allies and foes to recognise reality and to start talking.
We hope China’s leadership chooses the right road.
The better China-facilitated and negotiated pathway could lead combatants towards peace, and significantly raise China’s stature across the globe, help restore economic calm, lower energy prices, allow coexistence, competition, and eventually, once again, cooperation and collaboration on common global goals.
William R. Rhodes is a former chair and CEO of Citibank and author of Banker to the World
Stuart P.M. Mackintosh is executive director of the Group of Thirty