Opinion | Domestic politics, the economy and China all loom large on Biden’s steep path to re-election

Name: Chinese fighter jet almost collides with US military plane over South China Sea
Uploaded: 2023-03-08T17:00:14.000Z
Duration: 1 min 46 s
Description: Chinese fighter jet almost collides with US military plane over South China Sea

The sitting US president is expected to run again next year, but he faces many challenges in forming a winning coalition and working with a divided Congress

Handling competition with China is high on Biden’s agenda but will only matter to voters if he can address the economy and ease concerns about his age

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James David Spellman

Published: 1:00am, 9 Mar 2023Updated: 2:33am, 9 Mar 2023

US President Joe Biden’s bid for re-election will struggle to build a winning coalition within a fiercely divided country. China will figure in his campaign strategy during the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024.

Biden has many hurdles as there is no foolproof majority in US politics today. He must rally his supporters to vote in record numbers. Deep inroads are needed into Hispanic communities and other ethnic groups, including Asian-Americans. Embittered, right-wing extremists must be fended off, as they were during the midterms in 2022.

Biden must manage domestic politics while courting voters, from averting a federal government shutdown to reducing gun violence and dodging Republican candidates’ attacks. A Republican-controlled House of Representatives and the Senate’s narrow Democratic majority mean deal-making will be tough.

Low approval ratings and growing concerns around his age mean the road to victory is particularly steep. Polls show his disapproval rating running at about 52 per cent, something that has dogged him since September 2021. The economy, crime, climate change and immigration are high on Americans’ list of concerns, according to Ipsos polls. Nearly 80 per cent of respondents to a Pew Research Centre survey in January viewed the US economy as either only “fair” or “poor”.

China poses three challenges for Biden. First, President Xi Jinping’s trajectory towards a diversionary aggressive stance heightens Washington’s distrust of Beijing’s motives, notably its “no limits” friendship with Russia, as affirmed in a recent meeting between China’s top diplomat Wang Yi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Frequent encounters between Chinese jet fighters and US surveillance aircraft flying over the South China Sea add to US-China tensions.

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Chinese fighter jet almost collides with US military plane over South China Sea

Second, China’s economic statecraft is seen as threatening US national security interests. Robust development and production of digital technologies are as critical as building troops’ firepower. In realpolitik, dependence on a single country for key components poses risks.