An oil chief heading COP28? Fossil fuel industry’s climate change schizophrenia is on full display

Environment activists have decried the UAE’s nomination of Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, CEO of an oil company, to lead the UN’s climate talks at the end of the year
While al-Jaber is a seasoned diplomat and also heads a renewable energy firm, the oil industry’s environmental track record means scepticism about his role is understandable

David Dodwell

Published: 3:30am, 24 Apr 2023

Why you can trust SCMP

Amid this past weekend’s Earth Day activism worldwide, and hand-wringing about the slow progress towards net zero carbon emission targets that are becoming alarmingly out of reach, attention is being turned to the COP28 climate summit at the end of the year – and the improbable role of the United Arab Emirates as host, as well as the nomination of Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber as the conference’s president.

As a cabinet minister, seasoned diplomat and confidant to the UAE’s president, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, al-Jaber has been welcomed by many. Britain’s former prime minister Tony Blair said he has “both the standing and the capability to offer groundbreaking leadership for COP28”. US special climate envoy John Kerry has called him “a terrific choice”.

But as head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), one of the world’s largest oil producers, environmentalists see his appointment as “a breathtaking conflict of interest”.

That al-Jaber is also chairman of renewable energy firm Masdar, which has investments mainly in solar and wind energy across 40 countries, provides little comfort. While Masdar says it plans to invest US$30 billion in renewables by 2030, Adnoc’s board approved a US$150 billion five-year plan that includes increasing the company’s crude output capacity to 5 million barrels a day by 2027.

Under the plan, Adnoc will also pursue low-carbon solutions as part of a goal to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. However, the company’s website clearly says it has “a mandate to stay focused on exploring the UAE’s undeveloped oil and gas potential”.

In a speech last year, al-Jaber warned against trying to transition away from fossil fuels too quickly. Underscoring the need for “maximum energy, minimum emissions”, he said “the world needs all the energy solutions it can get”.

02:21

Meet the students taking climate justice to the world’s highest court

Both al-Jaber and the UAE exemplify the profound schizophrenia among the world’s fossil fuel producers that has aroused the concern of environmentalists. This was well reflected in a recent Rolling Stone article by Bill McKibben, whose book, The End of Nature, was in 1989 regarded as the first attempt to write about the climate crisis for a general audience.

McKibben uses simple arithmetic: oil producers have earned US$2.8 billion a day for the past 50 years. They today control reserves that if burned would produce 3,700 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide – around 10 times more than our atmosphere can absorb if it is to stay on the right side of the 1.5 degrees Celsius rise in temperature mark needed to avert climate crisis.

That means 90 per cent of those reserves need to be left in the ground, stranding fossil fuel assets currently valued at US$100 trillion. “The people making that money have the motive and the means to try to keep [the fossil fuel industry] alive,” writes McKibben.

In short, accepting the UAE as host of COP28, under the presidency of al-Jaber demands a huge leap of faith. A COP28 spokesperson for the UAE noted when al-Jaber’s appointment was unveiled in January: “His experience uniquely positions him to be able to convene both the public and private sector to bring about pragmatic solutions to achieve the goals and aspirations of the Paris climate agreement.”

At present, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is willing to suspend disbelief, with executive director Fatih Birol saying in March: “The UAE’s COP28 presidency is a crucial opportunity for the oil and gas sector to show it can take an active and transparent role in tackling climate change.”

03:15

COP27 delivers historic global warming ‘loss and damage’ fund, but no progress on fossil fuels

But the IEA’s latest report, “Credible Pathways to 1.5°C” is blunt about the scale of the challenge: “There is no credible pathway to limiting warming to 1.5°C without steep and immediate reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions.”

It identifies four key pillars to stay on track. First, we must decarbonise electricity, tripling renewables to 1,200GW a year by 2030, representing 90 per cent of new generating capacity each year.

Second, we must achieve net zero deforestation by 2030.

Third, we must radically reduce emissions of other greenhouse gases, such as methane, from agriculture and the energy sector.

And finally, we need to boost carbon dioxide capture to 1.2 gigatonnes a year by 2030 – a 30-fold increase from 2021.

08:42

The surprising hurdle slowing China’s switch to green energy

Even though we currently remain well “off track” – carbon dioxide emissions increased by 0.9 per cent last year – IEA’s Birol noted in March that the increasing take-up of clean energy technologies, such as renewables and electric vehicles, has prevented a stronger rise in emissions.

However, according to an IEA report last year, the world’s oil and gas companies are still putting only 5 per cent of their capital investment into clean energy.

Oil giants must wake up to the urgency of climate change, or be forced to

Al-Jaber has generated hope and concern in equal measure. He reminded those attending a key fossil-fuel industry conference in Houston last month that carbon dioxide emissions had to be cut by 43 per cent by 2030, dubbing the situation the industry’s “opportunity to reinvent itself and lead again” and calling on the industry to “decarbonise quicker, future-proof sooner, and create the energy system of the future today”. However, in an interview after the speech, he said we “cannot responsibly unplug the energy system of today until the system of tomorrow is ready”.

Only time will tell how satisfactorily al-Jaber’s conflicts of interest can be reconciled. I hope he can prove sceptics wrong. But after the oil industry’s four-decade track record of orchestrated doubt-mongering over the threat of climate change, my hopes are not high.

David Dodwell is CEO of the trade policy and international relations consultancy Strategic Access, focused on developments and challenges facing the Asia-Pacific over the past four decades