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US-China relations
Opinion
David Dodwell

Inside Out | US obsession with ‘de-risking’ from China ignores larger dangers

  • The world economy today is fraught with risk, but not the dangers Washington is hallucinating
  • Those truly concerned about supply chain risks would be drawing lessons from the pandemic and climate change, instead of pointing fingers at China

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Employees work on the production line of electric vehicle battery manufacturer Octillion in Hefei, Anhui province, China in 2021. China’s dominance of EV battery production has aroused concern in some countries. Photo: Reuters
The world of geopolitics is awash with talk of “de-risking” – a concept that seems as muddled as it is popular. Talk to any American politician, and “de-risking” is all about China. Talk to a German industrialist and it is more to do with electric cars, lithium batteries and reliance on Russian gas. For others, it is about supply chain vulnerabilities after the pandemic, or reducing global warming before we all fry to death.

In reality, we are living in a profoundly risky world, and “de-risking” is a complicated business. No wonder some academics are talking about a world “polycrisis”.

It’s surely obvious that none of us can “de-risk” before we have audited the risks that surround us and decided which of them threaten us most, and which we can live with.

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The new Washington consensus seems to be that the existential danger on this Richter scale of risk is China. Not gun violence or a debt crisis (Americans have lived with these challenges for years, and seem happy to continue); not the dysfunction of national politics, or the floods and wildfires fuelled by global warming. Just China – whether it is lithium or rare earths, TikTok or Chinese students at US universities.

All of which seems simplistic and naive. It’s true that all of us – not just the United States – have over the past four decades of globalisation allowed ourselves to become heavily reliant on a breathtaking list of Chinese products, inevitable when China nowadays supplies a huge chunk of the world’s traded goods.

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As Quartz recently reminded us, US consumers rely on China for 99 per cent of their electric blankets, 98 per cent of their collapsible umbrellas, 97 per cent of plastic flowers, 97 per cent of electric toasters and 95 per cent of their prams. But presumably these are dependencies most Americans can live with – unless, of course they believe that Chinese electric blankets contain chips that are tracking their sleeping patterns or sex lives.

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