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Opinion | How will Hong Kong care for and house its growing number of elderly?
- Projections suggest Hong Kong will have the world’s oldest population by 2050, but the city seems woefully unprepared
- Creating enough new places in care homes, enabling those who want to age in place to do so, and ensuring enough quality service providers are just the start
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The problem of how to adequately take care of and house Hong Kong’s elderly population is not a new one. It is beginning to heat up, though, and the figures look serious.
According to projections published by the Census and Statistics Department, the number of people aged 65 and above is forecast to nearly double, from 1.32 million (18.4 per cent of the total population) in 2019 to 2.52 million (33.3 per cent) by 2039. In 2069, it is set to reach 2.58 million (38.4 per cent).
Separately, the United Nations estimates Hong Kong will have the world’s oldest population by 2050, with 40.6 per cent aged 65 and older. From other figures published recently, we know Hong Kong’s total fertility rate is well below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.
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These are only projections, and the numbers vary, but the general message is clear: our population is ageing rapidly. What might this mean in concrete terms?
Property agency JLL recently crunched the numbers and estimated the number of residential care places would increase by just 0.24 per cent in the next 10 years while the number of seniors would grow by almost half. The agency’s conclusion was that we will need an additional 60,000 places in care homes by 2032. I am by nature an optimist, but I don’t think there is any way our community could provide or staff such a huge number of extra places.
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China’s elderly are heading to retirement, here’s why that’s a problem
China’s elderly are heading to retirement, here’s why that’s a problem
While we are still mulling the implications of these figures, Ombudsman Winnie Chiu Wai-yin recently announced the results of her direct investigation into the pilot scheme for community care service vouchers for the elderly. Ten years ago, the government introduced the trial scheme to support frail elderly people to “age in place” – that is, remain at home as long as possible – under the “money following the user” mode. The scheme was expanded in 2016 and 2020, but is still at the pilot stage.
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