Outside In | Hong Kong risks being left behind as the Greater Bay Area powers on

The 2019 unrest and pandemic years have delayed Hong Kong’s integration, diminished its importance and left much of its part in the bay area development plan unfulfilled

Time to dust off the plan and use it – or Hong Kong, already superseded by Shenzhen and Guangdong, will never fully capture the advantages of this fast-developing market

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A view of the Hong Kong skyline. Forgotten are the days, 25 years ago, when Hong Kong accounted for 20 per cent of China’s economy. It has been emphatically overtaken by Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Photo: Elson Li

Published: 7:30pm, 8 Dec 2023

Nearly five years ago, the central government outlined a development plan for the Greater Bay Area. However, even though Hong Kong’s economy has much to gain from closer connectivity with the other bay area cities, its integration – and the benefits we hoped would arise – has been disappointingly slow. In the meantime, Hong Kong’s importance in the area has declined.

Much can be blamed on wholly unforeseen developments. The pandemic lockdowns hit the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese economies more severely than almost anywhere in the world. While borders were closed for nearly three years from March 2020, Greater Bay Area integration was never likely to be anyone’s priority.

The six months of street conflict in the second half of 2019, including violent outbreaks of anti-mainland sentiment, was also not conducive to shaping detailed plans for stronger cross-boundary interconnection – or even opening discussions on the subject.

Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu’s administration and his mainland counterparts have worked hard to repair the damage. But this work is not yet complete, and there are still parts of the Hong Kong community with no enthusiasm for closer links – no matter how clear the benefits to our economy.

Compare the state of the region with the picture painted in the reports published when the Outline Development Plan and the 2022 Foundation’s 221-page examination of the area’s future were launched, and insights emerge – some not complimentary to Hong Kong.

The Greater Bay Area economy has risen steadily in importance, growing despite the Covid-19 disruption to US$1.94 trillion last year, up 28 per cent from 2017, overtaking that of Russia and South Korea and bumping up close to Canada’s. Its population has also grown, by 17 million to reach 86.6 million.