Hong Kong district council election: why weak middle class turnout is troubling

The expanded constituencies mean candidates need to cover a large population, with those with deep connections to public housing estates having an advantage
Candidates relying on middle-class support to win district council seats have been left disappointed

Regina Ip

Published: 9:30am, 17 Dec 2023

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The district council elections held on December 10 under revamped rules completes the last piece of the political jigsaw which perfected the “patriots-only” governance structure. The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office lauded the reshaped district councils as a key building block in keeping anti-China and anti-Hong Kong forces from participating in district organisations.

Among the many other compliments lavished on the elections, Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu praised the electoral outcomes for keeping those who would betray the interests of the country from participating.

In the eyes of the authorities, the reformed district council elections have successfully fulfilled their mission of ensuring political security. The government expressed satisfaction with the voter turnout of nearly 1.2 million people and the turnout rate of 27.5 per cent, not far below the voter turnout rate of 30.2 per cent of the similarly reconstituted Legislative Council elections in 2021.

A closer look at the voter turnout reveals a more unnerving picture about the new dynamics behind the elections. The first lesson learned is that numbers matter. District council constituencies had an average population of about 17,000 before the reform, while now the redrawn constituencies are as much as eight to 10 times larger.

For example, the new Hong Wan constituency on Hong Kong Island, covering the Quarry Bay and Shau Kei Wan areas, has a population of 187,331. It includes three public housing estates – Yiu Tung, Hing Tung and Hong Tung estates – which have more than 5,000, 2,000 and 500 units, respectively. That means the advantage lies with candidates who have deep connections with large numbers of public housing residents through painstaking services provided over the years.

One could say that is what mass democracy is about. In Hong Kong as well as elsewhere, such mass democracy comes with a potential price of populism and fiscal irresponsibility. Lower-income voters can often demand more welfare and cash handouts.

To woo the masses, a legislator advocated, on the eve of the elections, lowering the qualifying age for the non-means-tested “fruit money” of about HK$1,500 (US$190) per month from 70 to 65. This was in complete disregard of the need for fiscal discipline when the city’s fiscal deficit is widening and financial reserves are being whittled down.

Candidates relying on middle class support on the basis of common values of openness, diversity and inclusion face uphill battles in such large constituencies unless their middle-class voters turn out in force on election day. Unfortunately, Legislative Council elections tend to matter far more to middle-class voters than district council elections.

Middle-class voters living in well-managed private housing estates have limited demand for services from district councillors compared to less well-off residents. They care more about broader issues such as economic development, education and the future of Hong Kong as a global financial and business hub, which are matters dealt with in the Legislative Council rather than at district level.

The statistics available show that middle-class turnout was below expectations in many constituencies with largely upper- to middle-class and expatriate residents. Discovery Bay, Pok Fu Lam, Stubbs Road, The Belcher’s, Taikoo Shing East and Taikoo Shing West registered below-average voter turnout rates, while constituencies with large-scale public housing estates or disciplined service family quarters – such as Sheung Shun in Kwun Tong, Cheung Hong in Kwai Chung, Yiu Tung Estate in Eastern and Ap Lei Chau Estate – registered above-average voter turnout rates.

03:18

Polls open in Hong Kong’s new ‘patriots-only’ district council election

Many reasons could be behind the middle-class apathy. The Education Bureau made the day after polling day a holiday for schools. Many families took their children away for a holiday during the extended weekend.

Despite efforts by the government to entice Hongkongers to stay home, a reported 270,000 local residents went north on polling day. The electronic voting system breakdown and the patchy recovery in many polling stations did not help candidates in middle-class neighbourhoods lure their voters back to the polls.

Another significant development is the election of hitherto unknown candidates who parachuted into their constituencies but nevertheless won, thanks in part to support by community organisations capable of mobilising large numbers of ironclad, loyal supporters. Candidates Mandy Wong Sin Man and Lok Siu Luen, who won in Western district and Tai Po North, are good examples of such a winning formula.

The pitfall of employing such voter turnout mechanisms is that rational middle-class representation in district councils will be weak unless the middle class’ interest in participation is rekindled by strong candidates or competitive platforms. The government has tried to provide checks and balances by appointing new members to district councils who are not cut from the same cloth.

On December 12, the government announced the appointment of 179 members to the 18 district councils. Among them, 141 had served on district committees dealing with fire prevention or fighting crime. One could argue that district councils would benefit from members with deep local knowledge, but more new faces from more diverse occupational, educational and ethnic backgrounds are necessary to prevent district councils from becoming echo chambers.

Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee is convenor of the Executive Council, a lawmaker and chairwoman of the New People’s Party