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Macroscope
Opinion
Anthony Rowley

Macroscope | If Eurasia gets its act together, the US-China power balance will shift

  • Caught between the East-West power struggle as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Eurasia is increasingly being pushed towards integration
  • This would mean a China more fully integrated with Europe, a world less vulnerable to maritime choke points, and the possible toppling of the US as the world’s top economy

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People gather at Registan Square in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on March 4, 2018. The country was part of the ancient Silk Road, trading routes connecting China with Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe. China’s Belt and Road Initiative aims to revive and extend those routes via networks of upgraded or new railways, ports, pipelines, power grids and highways. Photo: Bloomberg

While much has been made in recent years of Africa “emerging” strongly, there is another continental area – Eurasia, and Central Asia especially – whose enormous economic potential remains relatively untapped.

As it has moved into the political arena of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the strategic competition between East and West, Eurasia has had something of a spotlight turned upon it. But relative ignorance still prevails concerning this mega continent’s game-changing potential.

If it can get its political and economic act together like Africa is beginning to do, Eurasia, as a united continent of some 90 countries and 5 billion people, has the physical and human resources to become a world beater.

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It would alter the balance of power between the United States and others. And a China fully integrated (at least logistically) with Europe would see its geopolitical position become more balanced. Much of the world would meanwhile become less vulnerable to maritime choke points.

Because of the vast size of this biggest land mass in the world, the landlocked nature of many of its constituent countries and its uneven population distribution, Eurasia lacks the markets and transport infrastructure at present to become a viable single entity.

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Laos takes delivery of train as new China-funded Belt and Road railway nears completion

Laos takes delivery of train as new China-funded Belt and Road railway nears completion

There is a chicken and egg argument over which comes first – the transport, energy and communications infrastructure needed to support growth or the economic activity and demand needed to justify infrastructure investment. Asia is proving more pragmatic than Western nations on this point.

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