Outside InAs world tourism starts to recover, where does that leave Hong Kong?
- Global tourist bookings have surged, particularly across Europe and the US, but war, oil prices, Covid-19 variants and China’s ‘dynamic zero’ policy remain dark clouds
- For Hong Kong, the sooner leaders recognise the mortal danger of its continued isolation and reopen the economy, the better
The mood at the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) global summit last week in Manila seemed almost celebratory. Bookings have surged in the first quarter of this year – best of all in Europe, where a 350 per cent year-on-year jump in international arrivals brought tourism close to the halcyon days before Covid-19.
Council president Julia Simpson was virtually breathless: “2022 is poised for a strong recovery if governments continue to open up and remove restrictions to travel. Our sector could recover more than 58 million jobs and generate US$8.6 trillion which would boost economic recovery around the world.”
Almost as an afterthought, she added: “This does depend of course on China reopening.” As the world’s primary cheerleader for the tourism industry, she can perhaps be forgiven for making light of just how big a “depend” that might be.
For summer bookings, WTTC’s data partner ForwardKeys expects international arrivals for six of the world’s top 10 travel destinations to surpass pre-pandemic levels, surely a cause for celebration.
The pandemic has savaged the travel and tourism sector, halving its contribution to the world economy by around US$4.8 trillion in 2020, with tens of millions of jobs lost. If Simpson’s optimism proves well founded, there might at last be light at the end of the tunnel.
But of the top 20 summer destinations identified by ForwardKeys, most will still see bookings at 10-27 per cent below 2019 levels. Many do not expect to recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2023.