Opinion | What is driving China’s ‘assertiveness’ in the South China Sea?

A major conclusion is that “China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea has less to do with US global power and international policy than is commonly assumed”. But the analysis fails to see the wood for the trees and in doing so draws unwarranted conclusions.

First and foremost, the report ignores its own advice. It says “the significance of state action in a contested maritime space often depends heavily on the context”.

Indeed, the fundamental problem with the analysis is that it ignores the US-China strategic contest for domination and assumes that China’s assertiveness is driven by its conflicting claims to rocks and ocean space or resources with rival claimants like Vietnam and the Philippines. It also assumes that this assertiveness can be measured by analysis of “the types of actions the contestant states have been taking, and where”.

This methodology may be applicable to the behaviour of Vietnam and the Philippines vis-à-vis each other or China’s actions. But the driving factor behind China’s own behaviour is its historical perspective and current strategic struggle with the US. Indeed, China’s actions towards rival claimants cannot be delinked from this broader context.

To China, the South China Sea historically provided access to its vulnerable underbelly for Western invaders, who conquered and colonised it. This perception extends to the modern era, both in strategic terms and in the sense that former Western colonies are plundering the area’s resources with the connivance of their former colonial masters. Such a perspective explains China’s desire to control the waters.