Jonathan Fenby on why China will not rule the world in 21st century, the subject of his new book

The author, a former editor of the Post, tells Hong Kong literary festival audience the potential for ‘emperor’ Xi Jinping to stumble, party’s refusal to liberalise, adverse demographics and pollution will stop nation dominating

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Former Post editor Jonathan Fenby in Hong Kong. He recalled its last colonial governor, Chris Patten, asking him, ‘How can you possibly understand China?’. Photo: Jonathan Wong

Published: 6:01pm, 14 Nov 2017Updated: 6:01pm, 14 Nov 2017

Former South China Morning Post editor Jonathan Fenby was in a chipper mood on Sunday afternoon following a celebratory dinner the night before to mark his 75th birthday.

Although he left Hong Kong 18 years ago, he has maintained a strong connection – personally and professionally – with the city, visiting several times a year. And he hasn’t taken his eye off China.

It’s his second appearance in as many days at the Hong Kong International Literary Festival and he cuts straight to the chase with a spoiler alert for those who have just bought his latest book, Will China Dominate the 21st Century? The simple answer is no.

“The thing to remember in China is that it’s the party that counts,” says Fenby, addressing a packed lecture theatre at the Hong Kong Museum of Medical Sciences in the city’s affluent Mid-Levels neighbourhood.

Xi Jinping (front, centre), at the opening session of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in the Great Hall of the People. Photo: Xinhua/Lan Hongguan

Xi Jinping’s recent speech at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China made it clear that he planned to strengthen political mechanisms in China.

“I may speak as too much of an old Western liberal democrat, as the last governor of Hong Kong [Chris Patten] once accused me of being – ‘How can you possibly understand China?’ he said – but for China to evolve socially, but above all in the economy, implies to me liberalisation and genuine openness of hope as well as being open to allow people to buy or sell your goods,” says Fenby.