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China, Asia to fill bulk of surging US demand for goods in 2021 as global trade rebounds from coronavirus, WTO says

  • North America will drive demand in merchandise trade this year, with US imports set to rise by 11.4 per cent after tumbling 6.1 per cent last year, the World Trade Organization (WTO) says
  • Most demand for imports will be met by producers in China and across Asia, where exports are expected to grow by 8.4 per cent this year

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Exports in Asia are expected to grow by 8.4 per cent this year, with China to account for most. Photo: AFP
Su-Lin Tan

The United States and the rest of North America will be the biggest importers of goods this year while China and other Asian economies will lead the way in supplying them, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said.

North America will drive demand in merchandise trade this year thanks to large fiscal injections in the US, the WTO announced in its global trade forecast on Wednesday. US imports are set to rise by 11.4 per cent after tumbling 6.1 per cent last year.
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Europe and South America will also see an increase in imports, but not as much as North America.

In turn, most of the demand for goods will be met by producers in Asia, where exports are expected to grow by 8.4 per cent this year, with China to account for most. the WTO said. European exports will increase nearly as much, while shipments from North America are tipped to rise by 7.7 per cent.

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A better than expected recovery in trade late last year, aided by the arrival of Covid-19 vaccines in November, helped boost the positive trajectory, although full recovery will be uneven and could suffer setbacks due to new outbreaks, the Geneva-based trade body added.

Major government policy interventions, including Washington’s much larger-than-expected stimulus package of US$1.9 trillion, have also boosted household incomes and supported continued spending on all goods, including imports, the WTO said.

“In addition, many businesses and households adapted to the changing circumstances, finding innovative ways to sustain economic activity in the face of health-related restrictions on mobility,” the WTO said in its forecast.

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“Effective management of the pandemic limited the extent of the economic downturn in China and other Asian economies, allowing them to continue importing. These actions helped prop up global demand and may have prevented an even larger trade decline.”

That the Ever Given has been able to cause this much disruption shows that global merchandise trade is relatively robust
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
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