China’s export growth for July may surprise, but most analysts say it will not match June’s surge

China’s trade data for last month will be released on Saturday, and a downward trend in export growth is widely expected for rest of year

General view is that imports growth has also slowed, notably due to weaker demand for iron ore used in steelmaking

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China’s trade data for July, due to be released on Saturday, will be closely watched for indications that export growth has started to slow. Photo: AP

Published: 6:15pm, 6 Aug 2021Updated: 6:15pm, 6 Aug 2021

China’s exports growth for July likely tumbled after a strong June, though analysts say the results may still surprise as a spate of overseas Delta variant outbreaks continue to drive foreign demand for Chinese goods and hold back a recovery in global manufacturing.

The July data – due to be released on Saturday – will be closely watched for signs that export growth has started to slow, which would be seen as a further indicator of the nation’s expected overall economic slowdown in the second half.

While exports have most likely remained strong, helping to cushion the slowdown, their growth rate is widely expected to gradually fall as positive comparison-base effects evaporate in the coming months, and as developed economies continue their economic recoveries.

Ahead of the release of July’s trade data, economists and analysts tipped year-on-year Chinese export growth to have fallen to between 14 and 24 per cent from a 32.2 per cent growth last month. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 19.9 per cent increase in July.

Forecasts of import growth in July were more mixed, with some analysts saying it might have risen a little higher than the 36.7 per cent year-on-year growth in June, though the general view was that imports growth also slowed, notably due to weaker demand for iron ore used in steelmaking.