Coronavirus: will Hong Kong and Singapore suffer biggest economic hit from outbreak?
- Prolonged disruption from the coronavirus outbreak in China could tip some Asia-Pacific economies into recession, economists say
- Taiwan, Japan and Singapore all recorded declines in exports last month, while Indonesia has trimmed its growth outlook for the year
Economic growth across the Asia-Pacific is set for a pummeling following the coronavirus outbreak which economists have classified as not a typical business cycle shock.
Goods and commodity exporters that depended heavily on Chinese demand are most likely to bear the brunt of the hit, economists warned.
The coronavirus outbreak, which has been declared a global health emergency, could cripple many economies on the brink of a recession like Singapore and Japan and drag others in the region down with it.
“Hong Kong and Singapore will be hardest hit. Australia, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam should suffer a material knock to growth while Korea would be vulnerable to supply-chain disruptions,” S&P Global said. India and Malaysia would suffer the least.
Prolonged disruption into the second quarter would tip the region into recession, stress corporate cash flow which [will] have substantial credit implications
A blow in the first quarter was a certainty but existing recessionary conditions in the Asia-Pacific would likely stretch out the slowdown, economists said.