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Isuzu trucks bound for shipment at a port in Yokohama, Japan. Photo: Bloomberg

Japan Inc puts positive spin on partial trade deal with US but is still worried about Trump

  • Most political and industry leaders cheered the short-term guarantees for key Japanese sectors and an assurance that the US would not increase auto tariffs
  • But analysts are worried that auto imports could still be targeted as US President Donald Trump is seeking re-election next year
Japan
Japanese political and industry leaders have sought to put a positive spin on the partial trade agreement signed on Wednesday between Tokyo and Washington, which provides short-term guarantees for several key Japanese sectors.
Some analysts sounded a note of caution, though, warning US President Donald Trump has a history of changing his mind as his domestic agenda demands.

In Tokyo on Thursday, trade minister Isshu Sugawara told reporters the deal “has great significance as it rules out protectionist steps that could distort global supply chains”.

“It will contribute to the stable development of Japan-US trade, centring on the auto industry,” he said.

The agreement signed in New York by Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe includes the assurance the US will not increase the tariff on Japanese cars. It is currently 2.5 per cent and Japan’s auto industry has urged the government to persuade the US to remove it entirely.

At a meeting with the trade minister in Tokyo soon after the deal was signed, Akio Toyoda, president of Toyota and head of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, reiterated that line.

“The auto industry already faces extremely difficult challenges amid the rising Japanese yen, a possible impact from the upcoming sales tax increase and other uncertainties,” Toyoda said. “We do hope the Japanese government understands the severe situation and provides us with further support to help the auto industry to strengthen its competitiveness and grow as a strategic industry.”

Toyoda did however welcome the elimination of uncertainty regarding US exports, praising the deal for ensuring “free and fair trade in the auto sector will be maintained and reinforced”.

Koji Endo, an auto sector analyst for SBI Securities in Tokyo, said the industry welcomed the security provided by the agreement but remained cautious given Trump’s unpredictability.

“Manufacturers are largely happy because we have heard so many rumours and threats over the last few years coming from the Trump administration that they were going to target auto imports because they make up such a large part of the trade deficit, as much as 70 per cent to 80 per cent of the total,” he said.

“That threat of higher tariffs or import quotas has caused serious concern here so now this agreement is in place, companies can relax. But you can obviously never know what will happen down the line with Trump.”

Trump draws heavily from support in “rust belt” states, the traditional heartland of US car manufacturers. Endo suggested “anything can happen” if Trump, while seeking re-election next year, senses more votes can be won by targeting Japanese imports.

Agriculture is the other Japanese sector affected by the trade deal. Taku Eto, the agriculture, forestry and fisheries minister, told industry representatives the deal would promote beef exports to the US by broadening the low-tariff quota on Japanese beef. He also said Tokyo did not bow to US requests for a tariff-free quota of rice imports, which would have triggered an influx of cheap US rice.

“I take this as a positive result, particularly in the area of rice imports from the US,” said Toru Nakaya, chairman of the Central Union of Agriculture Cooperatives. “The introduction of additional imports is being postponed and I believe that our members can be relieved. We call on the government to take the necessary measures to maintain import levels and to be aware of the potential impact on domestic supplies, demand and prices.”

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US President Donald Trump in New York. Photo: Kyodo
Cattle farmers, however, reacted less positively to the new agreement, insisting the industry was already feeling the effects of the regional CPTPP deal and a separate agreement with the European Union.
Beef farmers have been able to withstand other imports because the quality of Japanese beef is so high but US imports represent a new threat.

“American beef rivals ours in terms of quality and in that sense we are worried,” said Harumi Yoshikawa, who oversees livestock at an agricultural cooperative on Japan’s most northerly main island.

According to Jesper Koll, an analyst and CEO of Wisdom Tree Japan KK, “the job of industry groups – whether it is autos, pharmaceuticals, agriculture or whatever – is not to be happy with what the government agrees”.

America is now in it for itself alone and no longer wants to create multilateral rules
Jesper Koll, Wisdom Tree Japan KK

“The key thing here is that they have reached an agreement, that things are moving forward and the entrepreneurs, investors and CEOs that have been waiting for this kind of certainty can now start to push ahead with investments,” he said. “They have been holding back; now they don’t have to.”

The “pragmatism” of the Japan-US deal could have a positive ripple effect on the more significant dispute between the US and China, Koll said, although he was pessimistic about the long-term prospects of enduring stability.

“My personal opinion is that this is all very nice and well, but the US has effectively absconded from its position as leader and rule-maker in Asia,” he said. “America is now in it for itself alone and no longer wants to create multilateral rules.

“They have become the leaf on the tree that is doing well while the whole forest burns down around them.”

Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Japan puts positive spin on trade deal with the US
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