Landmark year for China-Japan ties turns sour as Beijing and Washington clash
- Japanese PM Shinzo Abe is now deflecting collateral damage at home as US-China relations hit a new low over coronavirus, trade and Hong Kong
- China has so far taken a markedly softer line on Japan than against the US, avoiding the need to confront both at once
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“If Abe falls out with China completely, it will be detrimental to him at home and abroad,” said Shi Yongming, a former Chinese diplomat to Japan and now a research associate at the China Institute of International Studies.
So far, the economic side of the relationship has continued to be strong even as political issues have waxed and waned. Japan’s foreign direct investment in China rose by 37 per cent from 2016 to 2019, according to Ministry of Finance data. Abe’s administration has said economic ties are good and China has steered clear of taking on Tokyo in the same way it has battled Trump.
But there have been signs that the relationship could get worse. Last month, Japan earmarked US$2.2 billion of an economic stimulus package to help manufacturers who want to reduce dependence on China. This month it will implement a law restricting foreign investment in companies it says are core to national security.
Japan will require agencies and companies that handle residents’ information to take national security risks into consideration when they buy communication equipment, national broadcaster NHK reported, adding the plan will effectively see Japan speed up its removal of Huawei products.
“Japan is always wary of China,” said Bonji Ohara, a former military attaché in Beijing and now senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo. “If the US takes a hard line on China, that gives Japan more room to move.”
As the spats have unfolded, China has taken a markedly softer line on Japan than against the US, avoiding the need to confront both at once. For its part, Japan is keen to avoid escalating tensions too far with a key business partner, as its economy tanks due to the coronavirus.
China and Japan should not see each other as a threat, says Xi
Abe has stood by Trump and expressed a willingness to fly to the US to attend a Group of Seven summit in person this month, even though domestic media say he might have been forced to quarantine for two weeks after his trip. Trump has now postponed the event.
As Trump vowed “strong” and “meaningful” actions against China over Hong Kong, Tokyo issued a strongly worded statement of concern, calling in the Chinese ambassador to convey the message directly.
That came just days after Abe appeared to back Trump by telling reporters there was no doubt that the new coronavirus had spread from China to the rest of the world. His remarks sparked a reprimand from Beijing, which says the origins of the virus were unclear and should be investigated scientifically.
Japan has experience of Beijing’s use of economic leverage, after a scare a decade ago when China put the brakes on its supply of rare earth metals that are essential for Japan’s hi-tech industries.
“When China increases its economic influence, it tries to use that to get others to agree to its demands,” Ohara said.
It could even try to use supplies of any future coronavirus vaccine in the same way, he added.