Japan pushes ahead with biggest military expansion in decades as Beijing ratchets up pressure on Taiwan
- Japan, which is working on mega defence projects, including longer-range missiles, sees 2027 as the moment when East Asia’s power balance may tip in China’s favour
- Losing Taiwan to mainland Chinese control could be a disaster for Tokyo because it would jeopardise key shipping lanes that supply nearly all its oil
Japan’s government “has the wind at its back and will use that to do whatever it can,” said Takashi Kawakami, a professor at Takushoku University in Tokyo. By pointing to 2027 as the moment when East Asia’s power balance may tip in China’s favour, Japan’s government can rally support for greater defence spending, he added.
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For Japan, losing Taiwan to mainland Chinese control could be a disaster because it would jeopardise key shipping lanes that supply nearly all Tokyo’s oil and many of the materials it uses for manufacturing. It would also give the Chinese navy unfettered access to the Western Pacific from bases on the island.
“There are different shades of opinion, but generally, government officials share the same view of the significance of 2027,” said a senior Japanese government official involved in defence build-up plans.
“This has been discussed internally,” he added, asking not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue.
China’s foreign ministry said Japan was using China as a pretext for a military build-up.
“Political forces in Japan have repeatedly used China as an excuse to deliberately exaggerate regional tensions. In doing so, the Japanese side is only looking for excuses to strengthen its own military and expand its military,” the ministry said.
Japanese defence ministry officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Japan’s delicate diplomatic and economic relations with its bigger neighbour mean it is unlikely to commit to directly defending Taiwan. But with Japan’s nearest territory only about 150km from the island, it could be drawn into conflict with an adversary that spends more than four times as much on its military.
China could try to capture Japanese islands close to Taiwan to establish air defences and fend off any counter attack, said another Japanese government official involved in planning, who also asked not to be named because he is not authorised to talk to the media.
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Japanese military bases, airports, seaports, and other logistical hubs could also be tempting targets for Chinese missile strikes because they would be staging grounds for US forces.
In crafting its defence plans, Japan needs to consider a scenario in which Washington does not respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan, said Yasuhiro Matsuda, an international politics professor at Tokyo University and former Ministry of Defence senior researcher.
“If Japan can strengthen its defence capability … then China’s calculation to attack US forces on Japan will be quite different, the cost and risk of a Taiwan operation will be quite high,” Matsuda said this month during an online discussion hosted by the Rand Corporation think tank.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which it calls a “special operation”, has helped shift public opinion in Japan away from the post-war pacifism that has dominated defence policy for decades.
In an opinion poll published by public broadcaster NHK this month, 55 per cent of 1,247 people surveyed said they supported increased defence spending, compared with 29 per cent who opposed it. Of those backing a stronger military, 61 per cent said Japan should pay for it with public spending cuts.
More immediately, it will help Japan increase stockpiles of spare parts and ammunition that its untested military would need to sustain any fight.
“We will need to give priority to things that we can deploy within five years,” the first government official said.
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Kishida will unveil details of military spending plans in December along with a revamped security strategy. That strategy is expected to give Tokyo a bigger regional security role alongside the United States, which has thousands of troops, hundreds of aircraft, and dozens of warships deployed in Japan.
“I don’t see North Korea’s actions leading to any significant change” to Japan’s China focus,” said Bonji Ohara, senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation and a former military attaché at Japan’s embassy in China. North Korea’s latest actions may even help solidify public support for it, he added.