Six years later, the pact is again up for renewal. But this time, the “exit card” is not on the table.

With increasing Chinese influence in the region, Washington is now trying to start a new chapter with a heavier purse and a broader strategy.

Last week, US Vice-President Kamala Harris gave a virtual address to the Pacific Island Forum at the request of Fiji, the rotating chair of the 18-member intergovernmental regional bloc in the Oceania.

Seeking to “strengthen US partnership” with the region, Harris made a series of commitments. These included the opening of embassies in Tonga and Kiribati, the appointment of the first-ever US envoy to the Pacific Island Forum and the re-establishment the US Agency for International Development’s regional mission in Fiji.

But the highlight was the promise of a three-fold increase in US aid under the South Pacific Tuna Treaty, from US$21 million per year to US$60 million for the next 10 years, with funds targeting climate change; illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing; and maritime security.

Originally signed in 1988 between the US and 16 Pacific Island nations and territories, the tuna agreement outlines the rules under which US vessels can fish within the Pacific islands’ 200-miles exclusive economic zones (EEZ) and the number of days they can fish there.

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The current deal allows US vessels to choose the number of fishing days to purchase at a rate of US$12,500 per day.

Australia, the Cook Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Nauru, New Zealand, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, the US and Vanuatu are parties to the treaty. Some of the signatories gain about 40 per cent of their national income from tuna fishing licences and access fees.

The Pacific EEZs are home to over 60 per cent of the world’s tuna population, worth $US26 billion. The industry is responsible for more than 20,000 jobs across the region.

In 2018, tuna lovers worldwide paid US$40.8 billion for the seven most popular species – yellowfin, skipjack, bigeye, albacore, and Atlantic, Pacific and southern bluefin, according to a 2020 Pew Trusts report.

Calling the tuna treaty “a cornerstone of political and economic cooperation”, Harris pledged to conclude a new agreement soon, with the current version running until the end of the year.

Frank Bainimarama, the prime minister of Fiji, said that Harris’s “comprehensive remarks and commitment show that America is prepared to become a Pacific partner like never before”.

In an indirect reference to China, the US vice-president warned the forum against “bad actors” who “seek to undermine the rules-based order”.

Jessica Collins of the Sydney-based Lowy Institute said there was no doubt that China’s increased engagement in the Pacific helped return US attention to the Pacific Islands, including the increased funding for the treaty. It will not be enough to counter China’s rise, she said, but “underscores the US’s willingness to listen and respond to Pacific needs, which is what Pacific nations have been calling for over many years”.

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After World War II, the US and Japan controlled industrial-scale fishing in the South Pacific, but over the past decade China, along with Japan and South Korea, have challenged the traditional players.

China has registered the biggest expansion since 2012. It now boasts the world’s largest fishing fleet with some experts putting the distant-water vessel total around 17,000, whereas the US has fewer than 300.

The US blames China for dispatching oversized fishing trawlers and wide nets to illegally haul tuna. Last month, US President Joe Biden signed a national security memorandum addressing IUU fishing in international waters.

“The US accusation is completely untrue and does nothing to protect the marine environment and promote international cooperation in sustainable fishery,” Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for China’s embassy in Washington, said in response.

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As the world’s largest consumer of fish, China’s tuna consumption has been on the rise. In the United States, canned tuna reclaimed its place in American kitchens during the Covid-19 pandemic after experiencing a 38 per cent fall in sales between 1998 and 2017. In 2021, canned tuna imports rose by 17 per cent year on year, while fresh tuna imports registered a 25 per cent jump because of a strong demand from the sushi trade.

Collins said the tuna treaty was about more than just food resources. “Fishing fleets can also be dual purpose – they can monitor, observe and collect important data on oceans and foreign fishing fleets, which also helps to determine which partners are playing by the rules in the region,” she said.

Kiribati’s decision to break away from the Pacific Island Forum over allegations of unfair treatment of Micronesian nations has raised questions about its participation in the future deal.

“For Kiribati to leave the tuna treaty, it would need a good reason, and that would likely be if it didn’t have a seat at the table when the treaty is negotiated,” Collins said.

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In November, Western powers were alarmed when Kiribati opened the Phoenix Islands Protected Area, a 400,000-square-kilometre World Heritage Site that borders US waters, to commercial fishing. Noting the strategic significance of area, many observers suspect China’s influence behind the move.

Anna Powles of the Massey University Defence and Security Centre in New Zealand said the island could potentially be used for both fishery and military purposes. “Kiribati has real strategic value to China if it could potentially develop some strategic infrastructure,” she said.

In Washington, there is a bipartisan consensus to avoid a repeat of the 2016 treaty drama. Said US Senator Bob Menendez, a Democrat from New Jersey and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: “The tuna treaty has long been a cornerstone of US economic interests in the South Pacific and our relations with other countries in the region. Reinforcing those bonds is more important than ever, especially in the face of growing Chinese influence.”