Opinion | Opinion: EU should host US-China contingency talks on North Korean nuclear crisis
Mathieu Duchatel writes that the countries’ lack of crisis management discussions could allow unexpected incidents to quickly escalate
How do you avoid a war on the Korean peninsula that could be triggered not by a rational decision but by an accident or misperception? Deterrence is about something else. It targets the cost-benefit analysis behind the decision to start a war. Crisis management addresses more restrictively the military incidents that could lead to an escalation of hostilities.
The lack of crisis management talks is an obvious problem in US-DPRK relations; but it also exists in US-China relations, adding a layer of volatility to the Korean security equation. Of course, political talks take place regularly and at a high level between the US and China – most recently between US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and China’s state councillor, Yang Jiechi.
But these discussions do not address specific contingency plans because the issue is politically too sensitive for China. This limitation is problematic because misperception and miscalculation caused by uncertainties and lack of intelligence regarding how other parties will respond are major factors in crisis escalation.
Thinking in terms of scenarios illustrates how the absence of such talks between the US and China aggravates risks of unintended escalation on the Korean peninsula if an accident occurs.
Many scenarios are worthy of careful anticipation and planning owing to their potential to lead to a major confrontation. Think first of North Korean missile tests going wrong. There has been an element of luck as North Korean missile tests so far have not caused any foreign fatalities, be they on fishing boats and commercial ships in the Pacific Ocean or on Japanese soil.