Reading between the lines: what to watch for at China’s most important political event
The date for China’s much anticipated 19th party congress has finally been set. The country’s most important political event – held only twice a decade – will begin on October 18, setting the stage for the second term of President Xi Jinping, who has already emerged from the past five years as the country’s most powerful leader in decades.
It will be closely watched by observers both within and outside China as Xi’s power is put to the test and the trajectory of the world’s second-largest economy is set for years to come. That will include the unveiling of the country’s new leadership line-up and its policy direction for the next five years.
So what are the key areas to watch at the party congress?
1 Leadership reshuffle
The leadership line-up is one of the key factors that will shape Xi’s influence over the next five years. There are many uncertainties, and each comes with its own implications.
• Possible successor
One of the biggest questions surrounding the reshuffle is whether Xi will signal a possible successor by elevating a younger leader (or two) into the new Politburo Standing Committee, the top decision-making body within the party, as happened at the mid-term congresses of the two presidents before him. The absence of any heir-apparent will be widely read as a sign of Xi’s intention to break with the convention of the past two decades and stay on for a third term. But some experts have argued that this might not necessarily be a sign that he intends to stay on. It could instead be a case of Xi wanting to avoid any deviation from his authority, allowing him to focus on more urgent issues than grooming a successor – such as dealing with economic threats.
• If Wang Qishan stays
Another key person to look for in the line-up is Wang Qishan, Xi’s powerful ally who has spearheaded an unprecedented war on corruption that has felled some 1.2 million corrupt or disloyal officials – including the president’s high-ranking political rivals. At 69, Wang is due to step down according to an informal retirement convention, but speculation has been rife that he might stay. Bending the rule – which has already been dismissed by the party as pure “folklore” – for Wang not only means Xi retains a key ally on the Standing Committee, but it also sets a precedent for Xi to stay beyond the unwritten age limit for a third term.