Coronavirus: as China hits record 40,052 daily cases, can zero-Covid continue?

Case numbers will increase if stringent measures are not sustainable, Hong Kong epidemiologist says, warning of winter surge

End mass PCR tests, focus resources on severe cases and boost elderly vaccination rates, public health experts advise

Reading Time:4 minutes

A resident of a fenced-off residential compound asks a health worker to help pick up his groceries, in Beijing on Sunday. Photo: AP

Published: 12:01pm, 28 Nov 2022Updated: 3:49pm, 28 Nov 2022

The latest Covid-19 waves in China have revealed more transmissible but less lethal strains of the coronavirus, but it is too early to be optimistic, public health experts have warned.

Just days after China relaxed some zero-Covid measures, infection numbers in the current outbreak hit a new high of 40,052 on Monday, with 36,304 yet to show symptoms.

As of Monday, 104 cases were identified as “severe”, with seven deaths recorded so far. All patients who died were over 80 and had comorbidities.

The waves risk burdening the health system and if China were to change its response, it should put fewer resources into mass testing and more into vaccination and public education, according to one epidemiologist.

Covid-19 infections have been on the rise across China since early October, believed to be driven by new subvariants of the highly infectious but less deadly Omicron strain.

The number of severe cases, however, has been comparatively low.

Professor Benjamin Cowling, head of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Hong Kong, said this needed to be interpreted with caution as there was usually a two-week lag between infection and more severe clinical outcomes.

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