Covid in China: deaths and severe cases down almost 90 per cent since infection peak, CDC says

Chinese health officials also record sharp decrease in Covid-19 patients at hospitals and fever clinics since illness wave crested in January
However, authorities continue to monitor situation as Lunar New Year holiday period wraps up and new variants emerge

Coronavirus China

Xinlu Liang

Published: 4:00pm, 2 Feb 2023

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China has reported a nearly 90 per cent drop in Covid-19 deaths and severe cases among hospital patients since infections peaked last month, suggesting the end is in sight for the massive outbreak that followed Beijing’s pandemic policy pivot.

In a report published on Wednesday, the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said there were 434 Covid-related deaths on Monday, down 89.8 per cent since peaking on January 4 when there were 4,273 deaths per day.

China recorded 6,364 Covid-related deaths from January 20 to 26 – about half the number reported in the previous week, health authorities said, noting that the country’s latest wave of infections was on a steady decline nationwide.

The number of new severe Covid-19 cases among hospital patients dropped to 14,000 on January 30, down 89.3 per cent from a peak of 128,000 on January 5.

Since December, China has scrapped mass testing and the release of daily Covid-19 case numbers. The National Health Commission recorded almost 60,000 Covid-related deaths between December 8 and January 12.

Wednesday’s CDC report showed that polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests have decreased significantly across the country, from 150 million on December 9 to 7.54 million on January 1 and just 974,000 on Monday. Positive rates also fell to 2.5 per cent on Monday from a peak of 29.2 per cent on December 25.

On January 19, days before the Lunar New Year, health authorities confirmed infections were at a “low level”. Previously, experts had warned rural areas that holiday travel could spark new waves of infection and asked rural hospitals and clinics to brace for outbreaks by setting up more fever clinics and boosting manpower and medical supplies.

Travellers made a total of 226 million trips during the Lunar New Year period, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism.

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The latest CDC statement noted that the infection peak in rural areas lagged that of urban areas by only one day.

According to the CDC, the number of patients at fever clinics nationwide peaked on December 23 with 2.87 million, fluctuated slightly after January 23 then dropped 94.3 per cent to 164,000 as of Monday. Positive cases among hospital patients have dropped 91.1 per cent since peaking on January 5.

CDC researcher Chen Cao said on Monday that the situation was still being monitored because the travel season – which officially runs from January 7 to February 15 – was not over and pupils would return to school for the new semester.

China continues to monitor new Covid-19 mutations through a national hospital network, with participating hospitals collecting samples from patients for genome sequencing and analysis.

Since December, the dominant variant has been BA.5.2.48 followed by BF.7.14, according to the CDC. It also reported 12 variants of concern, including one case each of XBB.1 and BQ.1.1.17, four BQ.1.1 cases, four BQ.1.2 cases and two cases caused by the BQ.1.8 variant.

The CDC said China was tracking “Orthrus”, also known as CH.1.1, an emerging, more transmissible Omicron subvariant that is increasing in prevalence in Britain and the United States. The agency said there had been 24 CH.1.1 cases over the past three months but ruled out the possibility that the variant would cause new outbreaks soon.

On Tuesday, CDC authorities said there was a “certain effect on cross-protection” – the degree of immunity conferred by previous infections – and Orthrus would “not cause a large-scale domestic outbreak in the short term”.