Hong Kong will need more than talent schemes to ensure steady population growth, experts say
- HKU demographics expert says significant improvement in living conditions needed on top of talent drive
- Authorities urged to make childcare facilities more affordable and accessible, and tackle long work hours
Some experts urged the government to improve living conditions to motivate residents to have babies, while others warned that overseas talent might not necessarily stay in the city in the long run.
The department also projected the population would reach 8.19 million by mid-2046, with the net inflow comprising 890,000 one-way permit holders, 510,000 admitted under different talent attraction and labour importation schemes, and 240,000 foreign domestic helpers.
But the city also witnessed a decline in births, with 32,600 recorded in the year to June, down from 35,100 over the preceding 12 months.
Authorities also predicted the birth rate would remain low, despite expecting the fertility rate – the number of children born alive per 1,000 women during their lifetime – to increase slightly to 938 in 2046 from 772 in 2021.
Professor Paul Yip Siu-fai, an expert in demographics from the University of Hong Kong, cautioned the government against being too optimistic about population growth, pointing out that talent schemes would not have an “immediate effect” on birth rates.
The government announced early last month the city had received more than 100,000 applications to various immigration initiatives, including the Top Talent Pass Scheme rolled out last December, and had approved more than 60 per cent of them.
“It is true that some of the talent drawn to the city are fertile couples. But they are just like locals. They face the same challenges with living conditions,” Yip said. “If there is no significant improvement to the city’s living conditions, I don’t think the talent schemes will have a major impact on Hong Kong’s birth rate.”
Hong Kong was ranked as the world’s most expensive housing market for the 13th straight year in the latest Demographia International Housing Affordability report, which compared 94 major cities.
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Yip predicted the city’s birth rate would remain low for a long time.
“I think we all must be realistic and accept the fact that the city is in a fertility trap that might not end for a long time. But we can always adopt measures to mitigate the effect of low birth rates,” Yip said, suggesting greater automation both in the home and workplace to increase productivity.
Adam Cheung Ka-lok, a demographer at Baptist University’s department of sociology, shared Yip’s views.
“The various talent schemes may help slow down the ageing population and the decline of the working population, but it will not entirely solve the fundamental issues, especially without more births,” Cheung warned.
“There are many competitors around the globe to attract talent, and we will expect more competition as many societies have begun adopting a more proactive approach in attracting talent.”
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The flow of immigrants might also become a source of cultural conflicts, he warned, adding the city would need to retain talent.
“If we do not have a strong market to hold the talent, they may leave Hong Kong,” he said.
Cheung called on the government to make childcare facilities more affordable and accessible to encourage couples to have children.
“The work culture, including the overly long work hours, in Hong Kong may also hinder young people from getting married and having children,” he said.
Lawmaker Eunice Yung Hoi-yan, who has been calling for a better population policy for Hong Kong, highlighted the importance of encouraging foreign talent to become permanent residents.
She said the government could organise more social activities for newly arrived professionals and other immigrants so they could make forge community bonds.
Professor Eric Fong Wai-ching, an expert in migration and urban sociology at HKU, said offering financial incentives or tax concessions did not help encourage births, partly because of changes in people’s mindset.
But there was no need to be overly concerned about a shrinking population so long as society’s productivity could support its development, he added.
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Fong agreed that importing talent could help boost general productivity and said the government should make better use of automation and technology to drive growth.
Legislator Chu Kwok-keung, who represents the education sector, expressed concerns that more schools could close if the government continued to drag its feet on addressing the low birth rate and the resultant falling student population.
An earlier paper prepared by authorities showed the number of children ready to start primary school would fall from 57,300 this year to 50,000 by 2029. The number of children going into Form One was also predicted to fall from 71,600 this year to 60,100 in 2029.
“The arrival of more overseas talent and their families cannot solve the declining student population,” Chu said. “The government can consider easing the ban on non-local parents coming to Hong Kong to give birth.”
Since 2013, non-local pregnant women have been banned from reserving hospital beds for delivery, but the rule does not apply to those with Hong Kong husbands. Children born in the city enjoy residency and its accompanying benefits, including free education.
