Concerns about spying and other espionage activities have surged in recent years as governments around the world, from the United States and Britain to China and Russia, have engaged in highly public campaigns to unearth foreign agents they believe to be in their midst. Photo: Reuters
Opinion
Outside In
by David Dodwell
Outside In
by David Dodwell
Why the shadowy world of spying is back in the spotlight
The world is seeing a renewed focus on spying amid heightened geopolitical stress, alarming wars, new invasive technologies and national security fears
Engaging in espionage is a dangerous, expensive habit few countries can truly afford, and we must pray all of them choose to engage in it responsibly
Whether spying can claim to be the world’s second-oldest profession after prostitution is highly contestable. But according to at least two sources, it has been skulking around for quite some time.
First, the Book of Joshua in the Old Testament: “Joshua the son of Nun sent out of Shittim two men to spy secretly, saying, ‘Go view the land, even Jericho’. And they went, and came into a harlot’s house, named Rahab, and lodged there.”
Second, and much more recently, William Burns, head of the CIA and one of the US’ most seasoned diplomats: “For as long as countries have kept secrets from one another, they have tried to steal them from one another.”
Recently, there has been remarkable resurgence in concern about espionage. This is in response to geopolitical stress, wars being fought in Ukraine and Gaza, the explosion of new technologies which empower the world’s spymasters and the global contagion of national security paranoia.
The espionage business is back in vogue. Perhaps not yet in the likes of James Bond films or John le Carre novels, but these might come soon.
Seemingly wherever you look, espionage is in the headlines. Michael Jonsson, deputy research director at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, wrote in Politico: “It’s starting to look like the 2020s may well turn into Europe’s ‘decade of the spy’ – much like the 1980s was America’s.”
CIA Director William Burns speaks during the US Foreign Service Gala Celebrating 100 Years of American Diplomacy at the State Department in Washington on May 21. Photo: AFP
The spy business might not have reached the fever pitch of the Cold War era, and much attention is focused on the more tawdry industrial espionage business of intellectual property and technology theft. However, it is getting hot nevertheless.
In February, one headline in The Economist read: “Russian spies are back – and more dangerous than ever.” The report noted that Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service saw around 600 officers expelled from embassies across Europe.
Last month, The New York Times reported about Chinese spies in Germany and the UK. Just this week, the US government revealed the planned prosecution of veteran diplomat Victor Manuel Rocha for spying for Cuba for much of his 40-year career.
Alice Leal Guo, the mayor of Bamban in the Philippines, is entangled in accusations of being a Chinese spy and links to illegal gaming amid an investigation into her murky past. She has rejected these accusations, saying “I am not a spy. I am a Filipino and I love my country.”
In China, the traditionally low-key Ministry of State Security has leapt into the public eye with a slick video and comic warning that foreign spies are everywhere and talking about the security services’ battle against the dark world of “subversion, separatism, terrorism and espionage”.
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Beijing raids offices of consulting firm Capvision in widening crackdown over national security
Beijing raids offices of consulting firm Capvision in widening crackdown over national security
Even Hong Kong finds itself embroiled in espionage charges in the UK, with three men accused of gathering information on dissidents for Hong Kong’s intelligence services. This particular spy saga took a dark turn when one of the three charged men, Matthew Trickett, was found dead in a park in Maidenhead.
The shadowy, cloak-and-dagger reputation of the espionage business makes the truth of claims and counterclaims almost impossible to verify. It also makes the industry perfect fodder for spy thrillers and conspiracy theorists.
But embarrassing leaks of government documents, the new intrusive power of internet technologies and the brilliant resourcefulness of investigative sleuths such as Eliot Higgins’ Bellingcat have offered the public a glimpse into this opaque world. They have unveiled the ubiquity of espionage and demonstrated the hypocrisy of many of its busiest players.
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Matthew Trickett, Briton accused of spying for Hong Kong, found dead in park
Matthew Trickett, Briton accused of spying for Hong Kong, found dead in park
As my mother used to tell me, “It takes one to know one.” While my mother was not talking about spies, the adage still applies. Almost by definition, no government is going to uncover clandestine activity by potentially unfriendly foreign powers unless it is not also busy developing its own clandestine capabilities.
No spy agency is likely to discover or worry about spy balloons or satellites unless it is using them itself – or at least has evaluated the value of using them. Why fret about secret back doors unless you are using – or considering using – such nefarious tricks yourself? No one loses sleep over the subversive power of TikTok videos and other social media unless they had considered using the videos subversively themselves.
Absent the angst and paranoia that is fuelled by war or similarly alarming threats, our spymasters face three particular challenges. First, how do you prove the reality of a threat? Second, how do you prove that spycraft is indispensable in fending off that threat? The current international turmoil – which Burns describes as a “fiendishly complicated international landscape” – provides perhaps the perfect time to prove the gravity of the threat and promote indispensability.
A demonstrator with a mask of MEP Maximilian Krah, a top candidate of Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party for the European election, wears a sign reading “Alternative for Dictators” as he stands in front of the venue of an AfD meeting in Donaueschingen, southern Germany, on April 27. Investigators have searched Krah’s Brussels office as part of an investigation into his aide, who is suspected of spying for China. Photo: AFP
Third, and perhaps most important, how do you secure funding for what are expensive activities? Few governments worldwide allow a glimpse into their spending practices. But to its credit, the United States provides some guidance. According to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the combined budgets of the National Intelligence Programme and the Military Intelligence Programme amounted to US$99.6 billion last year, up 16 per cent since 2020.
That makes espionage a luxury many countries cannot afford. That US$99.6 billion outstrips the total budget of all but a handful of the world’s governments. Whatever the concern over threats from nefarious foreign spies, we need to pray that those who engage in this craft use it responsibly, even if we can’t see it.
David Dodwell is CEO of the trade policy and international relations consultancy Strategic Access, focused on developments and challenges facing the Asia-Pacific over the past four decades
