MacroscopeCan world markets ride out the rest of Trump’s reign?
Two apparent anomalies stand out in recent market movements – the rising dollar and falling gold prices
A century on, T.S. Eliot’s poem The Hollow Men strikes a disturbingly ominous note: This is the way the world ends / Not with a bang but a whimper.
But either scenario is possible while the Trump administration remains in office and as hostility and rearmament gather pace among powers great and small. It’s worth remembering that the second world war came on the heels of the Great Depression in the 1930s.
Economic misery provokes an increase in trade protectionism and defence spending that is meant to provide employment, which in turn feeds into a nothing-to-lose mentality and military adventurism, as history has shown.
This time, the threat is of a greater magnitude. As Chatham House put it in a recent headline, “The Iran war risks triggering a new wave of nuclear proliferation”. It seems to be widely assumed that the latest Gulf war will end within months or even weeks from now. But setting aside the direct economic impact, the lasting effects on consumer, business and investor confidence are being overlooked.
01:24
South Korea goes on a bin-bag buying spree as Iran war stokes supply fears
We are talking about a situation of shock and trauma, not simply one of uncertainty and concern. Why would anyone wish to invest in anything for the longer term if they fear there might not be a longer term, or that the future will be even worse than the present?