bodyType

customContents

entityId

printArticlePageQuery

filter

article

body

urlAlias

articleSectionsContent

articleSeoArticle

articleSourceHeaderArticle

contentSchemaRenderContent

contentSubHeadlineContent

contentHeadlineContent

mainImagePrintArticleArticle

authorBlockPrintArticleArticle

contentSponsorTagContent

articlePianoPaywallContent

scmpYoutubeContent

hooksTrackPageViewArticle

query printArticlePageQuery(
  $entityId: String!
  $customContents: [CustomContentInput]
  $bodyType: BodyFormatTypeEnum
) {
  article(filter: {entityId: $entityId}) {
    entityId
    body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
      json
    }
    urlAlias
    ...articleSectionsContent
    ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4
    ...articleSourceHeaderArticle
    ...contentSchemaRenderContent
    ...contentSubHeadlineContent
    ...contentHeadlineContent
    ...mainImagePrintArticleArticle
    ...authorBlockPrintArticleArticle
    ...contentSponsorTagContent
    ...articlePianoPaywallContent
    ...scmpYoutubeContent
    ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle
    id
  }
}

fragment articlePianoPaywallContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent
}

fragment articleSectionsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection
      ...entityLink
      name
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment articleSeoArticle_3o8td4 on Article {
  ...hooksArticleSeoArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle
  entityId
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
  summary {
    text
  }
  subHeadline {
    text
  }
  body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
    text
  }
  keywords
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  topics {
    name
    entityId
    id
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  images {
    style(filter: {style: "768x768"}) {
      url
    }
  }
  readingTime
}

fragment articleSourceHeaderArticle on Article {
  urlAlias
  ...entityLink
}

fragment authorBlockPrintArticleArticle on Article {
  ...defaultArticleDateContent
  ...authorNamesArticle
}

fragment authorNameAuthor on Author {
  ...entityLink
  name
  entityUuid
}

fragment authorNamesArticle on Article {
  authorLocations
  authors {
    entityId
    location
    ...authorNameAuthor
    id
  }
}

fragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  socialHeadline
  ...contentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
}

fragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
    id
  }
  sections {
    value {
      relatedNewsletters {
        ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
        id
      }
      id
    }
  }
  ... on Article {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...blockquoteQuoteContent
  ...imageContent
  ...inlineWidgetContent
  ...photoGalleryWidgetContent
  ...scmpYoutubeContent
}

fragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  shortUrl
  socialHeadline
  headline
}

fragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  subHeadline {
    json
  }
  summary {
    json
  }
  ...contentSchemaRenderContent
}

fragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent
}

fragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  __typename
  entityId
  entityUuid
  urlAlias
  urlRedirect {
    toUrl
    id
  }
  application {
    entityId
    id
  }
  ... on Section {
    fullSectionPath {
      entityId
      id
    }
    parentSection
  }
  ...helpersAppBarVariantBase
  ...helpersApplicationBase
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...helpersSectionContent
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
}

fragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {
  name
}

fragment helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle on Article {
  entityId
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  disableOffPlatformContent
  sponsorType
  published
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {
  flattenTypeIds
  liveArticle {
    status
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    paywallTypes {
      entityUuid
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        entityId
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {
  entityId
  name
  alternativeName
  description {
    text
  }
  summary {
    text
  }
  homepageDescription {
    text
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {
  authors {
    types
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    sponsor {
      ...sponsorTagSponsor
      name
      type
      id
    }
    id
  }
  ... on Article {
    sponsorType
  }
  ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent
}

fragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdDate
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
}

fragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle
  entityId
  headline
  socialHeadline
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
  images {
    generic_og: style(filter: {style: "og_image_scmp_generic"}) {
      url
    }
    styles(filter: {styles: ["og_image_posties_article", "og_postmag", "og_image_style", "og_image_scmp_analysis", "og_image_scmp_explainer", "og_image_scmp_editorial", "og_image_scmp_fact_check", "og_image_scmp_debate", "og_image_scmp_live", "og_image_scmp_obituary", "og_image_scmp_opinion", "og_image_scmp_review", "og_image_scmp_series", "og_image_scmp_generic"]}) {
      url
      style
    }
    type
  }
  urlAlias
}

fragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        name
        entityId
        description {
          text
        }
        id
      }
    }
    ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  }
  flag
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  ...hooksContentHelperContent
}

fragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle
  ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle
  ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle
  flag
}

fragment hooksPaywallPromiseContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment hooksTrackPageViewArticle on Article {
  entityId
  publishedDate
  headline
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  entityUuid
}

fragment imageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  ...checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent
}

fragment inlineWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent
}

fragment mainImagePrintArticleArticle on Article {
  images {
    title
    url
    isSlideshow
    size_652x446: style(filter: {style: "652x446"}) {
      url
    }
  }
}

fragment photoGalleryDialogContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment photoGalleryWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...photoGalleryDialogContent
}

fragment scmpYoutubeContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  publishedDate
}

fragment sponsorTagSponsor on Sponsor {
  name
  type
  images {
    url
  }
}


sections

types

disableOffPlatformContent

sponsorType

published

headline

socialHeadline

authors

images

publishedDate

updatedDate

summary

subHeadline

keywords

topics

readingTime

authorLocations

entityUuid

Sarah Monks

Paralympic events, such as those now being staged, will be a thing of the past by the middle of this century, predicts Ian Goldin,  director of the James Martin 21st Century School  at the University of Oxford. 'Those issues will have been solved through medical miracles, certainly for younger people,' he said.
The 'miracles' include the ability to regrow nerve fibres so that people regain control over their limbs, to clone organs, and to genetically identify and eliminate diseases that lead to physical disabilities.
'These things are not science fiction,' Dr Goldin said during a visit to Hong Kong. 'These things are in development. It's a question of when, not if, they will come to the market. Crucially, it's also a question of for whom? Will they be available for the whole of society or only for the super rich or the richest countries?'
Such questions peppered his presentation to a seminar last Saturday organised by the Hong Kong Foresight Project, a new group that aims to encourage new thinking and public policy development.
Researchers at Dr Goldin's school believe there is already someone alive today who will live to be 150. He said the key question was what would the quality of life be for people who lived well beyond 100. Even if they are still sharp and fit - his school is working on new approaches to dementia, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's - what are the implications for society?
He predicts that, by 2030, there will be only two workers for every pensioner in wealthy countries and that the retirement age will be abolished. 'Young people had better not rely on pensions would be my advice,' said the South African-born economist. 'And don't expect to inherit your parents' house when you're 40. You might inherit it when you're 80. And don't expect to get your boss' job when you're 30 because they won't leave their job until they're 75.'
Dr Goldin, a former World Bank vice-president and adviser to former South African president Nelson Mandela,  expects the dynamics around housing markets, public finances, health systems and pension plans to change fundamentally.
His school's 85 full-time staff work in 15 institutes on areas of research selected for their global relevance and scale, such as ageing, environmental change, emerging infections and international migration.
Dr Goldin describes the school's interdisciplinary approach as 'revolutionary' and 'unique', as well as practical in terms of having an impact on public policy, business and society.
He highlighted ethical issues that will accompany future technology breakthroughs such as boosting IQ and concentration by 10 per cent and enhancing all parts of the human body. Will it be just the wealthy who benefit? It appears so,  at least in the short term. Then there is the possibility of creating computers that are smarter than humans; another 'when' not 'if' scenario, according to Dr Goldin. He also has concerns over using microscopic machines  -  about one-thousandth the diameter of a human hair - and which may be toxic if used in medicine.
'We need to understand it [nanomedicine] and the potential regulatory implications before we start using it too widely,' said Dr Goldin, whose school has a programme specifically dedicated to the ethics of the new biosciences.
The 21st Century School, founded in 2005 with a US$100 million endowment from computer scientist, social entrepreneur, author and futurologist James Martin,  is a fount of intriguing data.
Dr Goldin is in his element talking about futuristic subjects such as the brain power equivalent of computers and animals. 'Currently, for US$1,000, you can get about the computing power of a lizard,' said Dr Goldin. 'But you will, in about 10 years' time, have a mouse and probably, in about 25 years' time, a human brain, although this is a controversial subject.'
Such is the exponential growth in computing power that Dr Goldin noted: 'My Blackberry has more power than the first Apollo space craft, for a tiny fraction of the cost.'
Ardent about globalisation and development, on which he has written extensively, Dr Goldin cited income and longevity improvements over a long period to illustrate that 'everyone is moving up very rapidly to a better situation'.
The exception is the world's 'bottom billion' who, he said, were stuck because of 'too little rather than too much' globalisation.
Life expectancy, he said, was increasing globally at the rate of about three months per year, illiteracy had halved from about 50 per cent in 1970 to about 25 per cent now, and the number of absolute poor, living on less than US$1 a day, had dropped from 1.3 billion in 1970 to 860 million - despite an increase of more than 2 billion in the world's population in that time.
Dr Goldin, who last week was  discussing collaboration with leading universities in Beijing, regards China as the major source of this explosive growth. It is 'absolutely central' to both future global trends and to finding solutions to the challenges that arise,  he said.
Before leaving the World Bank in 2006, he forecast 'basically stable' growth patterns to 2030, though he still sounds a cautionary note.
'Can exponential growth keep on increasing? Can there just be a continuation of the good news? Or, is something very different going to happen?' he asked. Like many, Dr Goldin worries about supranational threats from climate change, pandemics - a subject on which he sees scope for closer collaboration with Hong Kong's 'terrific group' - and bio-terror caused by individuals bent on causing large-scale destruction.
In particular, he is concerned that the world's governing institutions and risk-management systems, which were mostly established 60 years ago in response to crises and disasters of that time, are not up to this century's challenges. 'I would argue that the biggest risk facing the world is not that we don't understand the technologies or the hazards but that we don't have a global management system in place which is capable of responding - not after the event, but before the event.'
Dr Goldin said his school was trying to raise awareness and spark policy discussion.
This has been a bumper year for visits  by celebrated 'thought leaders' on the world's future. Among them have been pioneering environmentalist Sir Crispin Tickell,  who also directs the policy foresight programme at the 21st Century School, best-selling futurist Wolfgang Grulke  and British management innovation guru Charles Leadbeater.
The latter two were invited to address the government Efficiency Unit's biennial Public Sector Reform Conference in March.
'We thought all civil servants should have a sip of that futurist thinking to reinvigorate their day-to-day management, to bring them out of their day-to-day chores so that they can reflect not upon the past but really think into the future,' said unit head Kitty Choi Kit-yu.
She noted that Mr Grulke spent a Saturday morning 'locked up' with Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen  and his leadership team. 'It shows the importance our government attaches to using the future to drive change in Hong Kong,' said Ms Choi, whose unit's job is to equip the civil service, especially senior management, with knowledge about world trends and new thinking.
Ms Choi said that futurists helped to frame issues in new ways that encouraged new thinking. 'We have been living in a world of legacy. We have inherited what our predecessors have been doing and their way of doing things. We need not just to do things right but always to ask ourselves whether we're doing the right things.'



Shape of things to come