bodyType

customContents

entityId

printArticlePageQuery

filter

article

body

urlAlias

articleSectionsContent

articleSeoArticle

articleSourceHeaderArticle

contentSchemaRenderContent

contentSubHeadlineContent

contentHeadlineContent

mainImagePrintArticleArticle

authorBlockPrintArticleArticle

contentSponsorTagContent

articlePianoPaywallContent

scmpYoutubeContent

hooksTrackPageViewArticle

query printArticlePageQuery(
  $entityId: String!
  $customContents: [CustomContentInput]
  $bodyType: BodyFormatTypeEnum
) {
  article(filter: {entityId: $entityId}) {
    entityId
    body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
      json
    }
    urlAlias
    ...articleSectionsContent
    ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4
    ...articleSourceHeaderArticle
    ...contentSchemaRenderContent
    ...contentSubHeadlineContent
    ...contentHeadlineContent
    ...mainImagePrintArticleArticle
    ...authorBlockPrintArticleArticle
    ...contentSponsorTagContent
    ...articlePianoPaywallContent
    ...scmpYoutubeContent
    ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle
    id
  }
}

fragment articlePianoPaywallContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent
}

fragment articleSectionsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection
      ...entityLink
      name
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment articleSeoArticle_3o8td4 on Article {
  ...hooksArticleSeoArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle
  entityId
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
  summary {
    text
  }
  subHeadline {
    text
  }
  body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
    text
  }
  keywords
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  topics {
    name
    entityId
    id
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  images {
    style(filter: {style: "768x768"}) {
      url
    }
  }
  readingTime
}

fragment articleSourceHeaderArticle on Article {
  urlAlias
  ...entityLink
}

fragment authorBlockPrintArticleArticle on Article {
  ...defaultArticleDateContent
  ...authorNamesArticle
}

fragment authorNameAuthor on Author {
  ...entityLink
  name
  entityUuid
}

fragment authorNamesArticle on Article {
  authorLocations
  authors {
    entityId
    location
    ...authorNameAuthor
    id
  }
}

fragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  socialHeadline
  ...contentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
}

fragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
    id
  }
  sections {
    value {
      relatedNewsletters {
        ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
        id
      }
      id
    }
  }
  ... on Article {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...blockquoteQuoteContent
  ...imageContent
  ...inlineWidgetContent
  ...photoGalleryWidgetContent
  ...scmpYoutubeContent
}

fragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  shortUrl
  socialHeadline
  headline
}

fragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  subHeadline {
    json
  }
  summary {
    json
  }
  ...contentSchemaRenderContent
}

fragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent
}

fragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  __typename
  entityId
  entityUuid
  urlAlias
  urlRedirect {
    toUrl
    id
  }
  application {
    entityId
    id
  }
  ... on Section {
    fullSectionPath {
      entityId
      id
    }
    parentSection
  }
  ...helpersAppBarVariantBase
  ...helpersApplicationBase
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...helpersSectionContent
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
}

fragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {
  name
}

fragment helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle on Article {
  entityId
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  disableOffPlatformContent
  sponsorType
  published
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {
  flattenTypeIds
  liveArticle {
    status
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    paywallTypes {
      entityUuid
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        entityId
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {
  entityId
  name
  alternativeName
  description {
    text
  }
  summary {
    text
  }
  homepageDescription {
    text
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {
  authors {
    types
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    sponsor {
      ...sponsorTagSponsor
      name
      type
      id
    }
    id
  }
  ... on Article {
    sponsorType
  }
  ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent
}

fragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdDate
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
}

fragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle
  entityId
  headline
  socialHeadline
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
  images {
    generic_og: style(filter: {style: "og_image_scmp_generic"}) {
      url
    }
    styles(filter: {styles: ["og_image_posties_article", "og_postmag", "og_image_style", "og_image_scmp_analysis", "og_image_scmp_explainer", "og_image_scmp_editorial", "og_image_scmp_fact_check", "og_image_scmp_debate", "og_image_scmp_live", "og_image_scmp_obituary", "og_image_scmp_opinion", "og_image_scmp_review", "og_image_scmp_series", "og_image_scmp_generic"]}) {
      url
      style
    }
    type
  }
  urlAlias
}

fragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        name
        entityId
        description {
          text
        }
        id
      }
    }
    ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  }
  flag
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  ...hooksContentHelperContent
}

fragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle
  ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle
  ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle
  flag
}

fragment hooksPaywallPromiseContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment hooksTrackPageViewArticle on Article {
  entityId
  publishedDate
  headline
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  entityUuid
}

fragment imageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  ...checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent
}

fragment inlineWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent
}

fragment mainImagePrintArticleArticle on Article {
  images {
    title
    url
    isSlideshow
    size_652x446: style(filter: {style: "652x446"}) {
      url
    }
  }
}

fragment photoGalleryDialogContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment photoGalleryWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...photoGalleryDialogContent
}

fragment scmpYoutubeContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  publishedDate
}

fragment sponsorTagSponsor on Sponsor {
  name
  type
  images {
    url
  }
}


sections

types

disableOffPlatformContent

sponsorType

published

headline

socialHeadline

authors

images

publishedDate

updatedDate

summary

subHeadline

keywords

topics

readingTime

authorLocations

entityUuid

Will Saetren

Last weekend, Donald Trump celebrated the one-year anniversary of his presidency. The 45th president of the United States entered office vowing to get tough with China, cut better deals and reassert America’s position as a Pacific power.
But one year later, Trump’s incoherent foreign policy has brought the US closer to “bending the knee” on the global stage than since the second world war. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Asia-Pacific, where Trump has left the strategic stability of the region, carefully crafted over decades, in tatters.
Strategic stability exists when competing nations have a high degree of certainty regarding actions of potential adversaries. There is an understanding that certain actions cause specific reactions, thereby minimising risk of conflict, caused by a miscalculation, which could escalate beyond control.
For decades, American power and prestige has been the bedrock of strategic stability. Past presidents went to great lengths to assure America’s allies and draw unambiguous red lines for adversaries. In one year, Trump has taken a sledgehammer to these policies and shaken strategic stability to its core.
One of Trump’s first moves upon taking office was to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which would have united countries representing 40 per cent of the world’s GDP. The agreement, signed by Trump’s predecessor but not yet ratified, would have benefited America by almost every measure. Most importantly, allies in the Pacific saw the TPP as demonstrating American commitment and a counter to China’s rising influence. As former US secretary of defence Ash Carter aptly put it, “passing TPP is as important to me as another aircraft carrier”. But Trump was more than willing to ignore the evidence and tear up “a bad deal” for no other discernible reason than it had his predecessor’s fingerprints on it.

Trade in times of Trump – make globalisation inclusive if you want voters to back openness in market
As America surrenders its leadership role through self-inflicted wounds, its allies are undoubtedly asking themselves whether the US can be relied on to come to their aid if it cannot help itself. It is becoming increasingly clear the answer is “no”.
Trump has threatened to make South Korea pay for the recent deployment of missile defence batteries to that country, and previously suggested that both South Korea and Japan develop their own nuclear arsenals. Even Trump’s signature “America First” policy suggests that the US is willing to selfishly abandon its allies.
In August, US Senator Lindsey Graham went on record saying that, “If there’s going to be a war to stop [Kim Jong-un], it will be over there. If thousands die, they’re going to die over there. They’re not going to die here.” Earlier this month, Foreign Policy published an op-ed bluntly asserting that civilian deaths in Seoul resulting from an attack on North Korea would “largely be self-inflicted”.
Don’t the South Koreans get a vote on war with North Korea?
The Trump administration’s failure to push back on this narrative is damning. Silence causes uncertainty, and uncertainty is the enemy of strategic stability.
Perhaps the most alarming sign of the dysfunction is the president’s ability to undermine the men and women of the State Department responsible for implementing America’s foreign policy.

Trump and Tillerson play word games on talks with North Korea
On December 12, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson announced that the US was prepared to enter diplomatic talks with North Korea without preconditions. “And then we can begin to lay out a map, a road map of what we might be willing to work towards,” he said. This was a stark departure from Washington’s past insistence that unless North Korea was willing to accept denuclearisation as the premise for negotiations, there was nothing to talk about.
Just three hours after Tillerson’s speech, the White House abruptly issued a statement directly contradicting what he had just said. The next day, State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert effectively stabbed her boss in the back, tweeting: “Our policy on #DPRK has not changed. Diplomacy is our top priority through our maximum pressure campaign. We remain open to dialogue when North Korea is willing to conduct a serious & credible dialogue on the peaceful denuclearization, but that time is not now.”
UN-led multilateral talks offer the best hope for peace in Korea
It is hard to overstate the significance of this. Although Tillerson’s humiliation barely made a ripple in the maelstrom of news engulfing Trump’s presidency, consider this: the secretary of state’s purpose is to communicate the policies of the US to allies and adversaries alike. When Tillerson travels abroad to secure the interests of the US, he can only do so if those negotiating with him believe he speaks on behalf of the president. It is becoming abundantly clear that he speaks for no one. Tillerson himself admits he has his staff print out Trump’s tweets and retroactively instructs them try to figure out how to “use it” to make policy.
China prepares for a potential crisis in North Korea


Trump’s first year failed the China test. His second looks far worse
The abasement of America’s secretary of state has real-life implications. Allies who no longer have faith in America’s security guarantees are more likely to take matters into their own hands. In 2010, when the South Korean warship Cheonan was torpedoed by North Korea, the US worked behind the scenes to convince Seoul not to respond with force. If a similar situation arose today, it might play out very differently, sparking a regional conflict that the US would be dragged into.
Perhaps more important than the perspectives of America’s allies are the interpretations of its adversaries.
Mutual understanding between competing nations is central to strategic stability but, for that to exist, effective signalling is crucial. For decades, America’s intentions, interests and red lines have been clearly drawn and communicated, but that is no longer the case. One year into the Trump presidency, key mid-level positions in America’s foreign policy bureaucracy remain unfilled. This, combined with Trump’s erratic tweets, disregard for truth and degradation of his secretary of state, creates a recipe for disaster.
Opinion: Which way for US foreign policy in 2018? Don’t look to Trump’s national security strategy for answers
If adversaries like North Korea cannot accurately discern the interests the US is willing to go to war over, they are more likely to make a miscalculation that could spiral out of control. Kim Jong-un has threatened to fire a missile in the direction of the US territory of Guam, and conduct the atmospheric detonation of a warhead over the Pacific. Thus far, North Korea has resisted doing so, probably calculating that the risk of a US retaliatory strike is too great. However, that calculus could rapidly change if the war of words between Kim and Trump escalates.




Is China planning to take Taiwan by force in 2020?
The risk of miscalculation is equally great or greater when dealing with strategic competitors like China. Ambiguous signalling by the US could cause China to overplay its hand in volatile areas like the South China Sea and cross a red line the US is, in fact, willing to enforce. A minor confrontation could turn into a high-stakes stand-off where both sides find themselves unable to retreat without catastrophic loss of face. At that point, all it would take is for the wrong person to shoot at the wrong people at the wrong time to ignite a cycle of escalation.
As Trump enters his second year, it is difficult to assess the extent of the damage that his presidency has done. There is one indicator however, that is particularly alarming. Earlier this month Pope Francis, when asked by reporters if he was worried about the possibility of nuclear war, responded: “I think we are at the very limit. I am really afraid of this. One accident is enough to precipitate things.” One accident is all it would take to bring human civilisation as we know it to an end. Thanks to Trump, we are now closer to that precipice than we have been since the end of the cold war.
Will Saetren is a research associate at the Institute for China-America Studies, where he specialises in nuclear weapons policy


How Trump’s incoherent foreign policy promotes uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific and risks disaster

Will Saetren says American foreign policy, especially in the Asia-Pacific, depends on sending clear messages to allies and adversaries alike, and the unclear signals coming from the Trump administration could have catastrophic consequences

DAY 4 - In this Jan. 23, 2017, file photo, Vice President Mike Pence, left, and White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, right, watch as President Donald Trump shows off an executive order to withdraw the U.S. from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact agreed to under the Obama administration in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson delivers remarks on the U.S.-Korea relationship during a forum at the Atlantic Council in Washington, U.S. December 12, 2017. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

Opinion

Comment

Will Saetren says American foreign policy, especially in the Asia-Pacific, depends on sending clear messages to allies and adversaries alike, and the unclear signals coming from the Trump administration could have catastrophic consequences


American foreign policy, especially in the Asia-Pacific, depends on sending clear messages to allies and adversaries alike, and the unclear signals coming from the Trump administration could have catastrophic consequences.


United States

Donald Trump

Diplomacy