Why Hong Kong’s pro-government politicians are set for a beating at the District Council ballot box

Hong Kong’s pro-establishment parties must share a common sense of frustration as the District Council elections draw closer. They are trapped in the frustration of supporting an incompetent government that continues to make the situation worse, even as it demands their unstinting loyalty. Pro-establishment politicians may not publish statements that go against the government; they can only watch the coming of a landslide loss in the elections.

A big challenge to the pro-establishment camp is the higher number of young voters. This year, the number of voters between the ages of 18 and 35 increased by 12.3 per cent, a much higher jump than the increase in the other age groups. The active participants of the current protest movement are predominantly young, so we can expect young people to overwhelmingly vote for the pro-democracy parties.

By contrast, middle-aged voters will be more divided. Still, many middle-aged professionals and government bureaucrats joined the protest rallies in Central and elsewhere. In the past, voters in this cohort tended to vote for the pro-establishment parties for economic reasons, but we can expect political considerations to play a bigger role in the coming elections.

As for the elderly, we cannot assume that most will vote for the pro-establishment camp as they did in the past. Thousands of mostly elderly Hongkongers marched on July 17 to support the young protesters, and some were also part of a “Protect the Children” campaign group who sought to safeguard young protesters on the front lines by being on the front lines themselves.

Across every age group, the public mood has turned against the pro-establishment camp. This is unprecedented.

Hong Kong society today is sharply divided into those who support the government and those who do not, with no room in the middle.

The pro-establishment camp has in the past deployed so-called independent candidates to win more votes. This tactic won’t work any more, as candidates who do not declare their political stance can no longer meet public expectations.

What’s more, many people are tracking social media to check the backgrounds of self-declared independent candidates for the slightest relation to the pro-establishment camp or the government.

As a result, the pro-establishment camp can rely on only two groups for support – anti-protest Hongkongers and those who can be lured with goodies to vote in their favour. Even then, the camp is unlikely to secure enough votes for a convincing victory.

Wang King Ying, Tsuen Wan