bodyType

customContents

entityId

printArticlePageQuery

filter

article

body

urlAlias

articleSectionsContent

articleSeoArticle

articleSourceHeaderArticle

contentSchemaRenderContent

contentSubHeadlineContent

contentHeadlineContent

mainImagePrintArticleArticle

authorBlockPrintArticleArticle

contentSponsorTagContent

articlePianoPaywallContent

scmpYoutubeContent

hooksTrackPageViewArticle

query printArticlePageQuery(
  $entityId: String!
  $customContents: [CustomContentInput]
  $bodyType: BodyFormatTypeEnum
) {
  article(filter: {entityId: $entityId}) {
    entityId
    body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
      json
    }
    urlAlias
    ...articleSectionsContent
    ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4
    ...articleSourceHeaderArticle
    ...contentSchemaRenderContent
    ...contentSubHeadlineContent
    ...contentHeadlineContent
    ...mainImagePrintArticleArticle
    ...authorBlockPrintArticleArticle
    ...contentSponsorTagContent
    ...articlePianoPaywallContent
    ...scmpYoutubeContent
    ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle
    id
  }
}

fragment articlePianoPaywallContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent
}

fragment articleSectionsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection
      ...entityLink
      name
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment articleSeoArticle_3o8td4 on Article {
  ...hooksArticleSeoArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle
  entityId
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
  summary {
    text
  }
  subHeadline {
    text
  }
  body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
    text
  }
  keywords
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  topics {
    name
    entityId
    id
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  images {
    style(filter: {style: "768x768"}) {
      url
    }
  }
  readingTime
}

fragment articleSourceHeaderArticle on Article {
  urlAlias
  ...entityLink
}

fragment authorBlockPrintArticleArticle on Article {
  ...defaultArticleDateContent
  ...authorNamesArticle
}

fragment authorNameAuthor on Author {
  ...entityLink
  name
  entityUuid
}

fragment authorNamesArticle on Article {
  authorLocations
  authors {
    entityId
    location
    ...authorNameAuthor
    id
  }
}

fragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  socialHeadline
  ...contentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
}

fragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
    id
  }
  sections {
    value {
      relatedNewsletters {
        ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
        id
      }
      id
    }
  }
  ... on Article {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...blockquoteQuoteContent
  ...imageContent
  ...inlineWidgetContent
  ...photoGalleryWidgetContent
  ...scmpYoutubeContent
}

fragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  shortUrl
  socialHeadline
  headline
}

fragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  subHeadline {
    json
  }
  summary {
    json
  }
  ...contentSchemaRenderContent
}

fragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent
}

fragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  __typename
  entityId
  entityUuid
  urlAlias
  urlRedirect {
    toUrl
    id
  }
  application {
    entityId
    id
  }
  ... on Section {
    fullSectionPath {
      entityId
      id
    }
    parentSection
  }
  ...helpersAppBarVariantBase
  ...helpersApplicationBase
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...helpersSectionContent
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
}

fragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {
  name
}

fragment helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle on Article {
  entityId
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  disableOffPlatformContent
  sponsorType
  published
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {
  flattenTypeIds
  liveArticle {
    status
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    paywallTypes {
      entityUuid
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        entityId
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {
  entityId
  name
  alternativeName
  description {
    text
  }
  summary {
    text
  }
  homepageDescription {
    text
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {
  authors {
    types
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    sponsor {
      ...sponsorTagSponsor
      name
      type
      id
    }
    id
  }
  ... on Article {
    sponsorType
  }
  ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent
}

fragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdDate
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
}

fragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle
  entityId
  headline
  socialHeadline
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
  images {
    generic_og: style(filter: {style: "og_image_scmp_generic"}) {
      url
    }
    styles(filter: {styles: ["og_image_posties_article", "og_postmag", "og_image_style", "og_image_scmp_analysis", "og_image_scmp_explainer", "og_image_scmp_editorial", "og_image_scmp_fact_check", "og_image_scmp_debate", "og_image_scmp_live", "og_image_scmp_obituary", "og_image_scmp_opinion", "og_image_scmp_review", "og_image_scmp_series", "og_image_scmp_generic"]}) {
      url
      style
    }
    type
  }
  urlAlias
}

fragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        name
        entityId
        description {
          text
        }
        id
      }
    }
    ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  }
  flag
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  ...hooksContentHelperContent
}

fragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle
  ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle
  ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle
  flag
}

fragment hooksPaywallPromiseContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment hooksTrackPageViewArticle on Article {
  entityId
  publishedDate
  headline
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  entityUuid
}

fragment imageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  ...checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent
}

fragment inlineWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent
}

fragment mainImagePrintArticleArticle on Article {
  images {
    title
    url
    isSlideshow
    size_652x446: style(filter: {style: "652x446"}) {
      url
    }
  }
}

fragment photoGalleryDialogContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment photoGalleryWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...photoGalleryDialogContent
}

fragment scmpYoutubeContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  publishedDate
}

fragment sponsorTagSponsor on Sponsor {
  name
  type
  images {
    url
  }
}


sections

types

disableOffPlatformContent

sponsorType

published

headline

socialHeadline

authors

images

publishedDate

updatedDate

summary

subHeadline

keywords

topics

readingTime

authorLocations

entityUuid

Wang Xiangwei

With a rapidly ageing population and a fast shrinking labour force, China is under rising pressure to completely remove its much-maligned birth controls to defuse a ticking demographic time bomb.
These days any public comment the government makes on the hugely sensitive subject could easily ignite a national debate.
The latest example came on February 18, when the National Health Commission – which is in charge of family planning – published on its website a statement saying it encouraged the three northeastern provinces with the lowest birth rates in the country to carry out extensive socio-economic studies on removing birth controls and come up with pilot schemes.
The statement was in response to a motion filed by the local deputies to the National People’s Congress (NPC), the country’s parliament, urging the central government to allow the three provinces to take the lead in eliminating all birth control policies.
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The statement has immediately caused a stir and gone viral online, prompting excited speculation that Beijing is considering further relaxing birth controls not only in the northeastern provinces but also nationwide. This forced the commission to issue another statement two days later, playing down any prospect of policy changes and saying that the motion merely merited further study.
But the commission’s hasty retreat has not dampened the online discussions with demographers and economists saying the time is ripe for the government to further ease or abolish birth controls altogether in anticipation of a greying population and a slowing economy.
Coincidence or not, the commission’s statement came just two weeks before the opening of the NPC’s annual plenary session where the debate on removing birth controls is expected to feature prominently. The 10-day meeting, starting from March 5, will discuss and approve China’s next five-year economic development plan for the period 2021 to 2025.
It also came before the government is scheduled to release the findings of its seventh census in April, which is expected to paint a grim picture of demographic changes and thus put more pressure on the government to act quickly.
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According to various official estimates, China’s population will peak at between 1.44 billion and 1.46 billion in 2030 before entering a long period of decline. Some expect the population to fall to less than 800 million by 2100.
The population of over-65s is expected to reach 300 million by 2025, accounting for about 20 per cent of the total, significantly up from 176 million at the end of 2019, about 12.6 per cent of the total.
Meanwhile, the country’s labour force, people aged 16 to 59, has continued to shrink to 896 million in 2019, the eighth year in a row, and is projected to decline to 830 million by 2030.
Sensing a demographic crisis on the horizon, China relaxed its 35-year-old one-child policy in late 2015 and allowed all couples to have two children. The number of births rose the next year but has since declined sharply.

In 2019, the number of births per 1,000 people fell to 10.48, the lowest since 1952.
Another benchmark is the total fertility rate, the number of children a woman gives birth to, is estimated at 1.7, according to the World Bank. The general consensus is that if the number is below 2.1, it usually signals a decline in the size of the population.
The government is scheduled to release the 2020 birth figures along with the preliminary data from the population census starting from April. But demographers expect the figures to show further declines because of the pandemic.
In fact, the demographic time bomb has already exploded in the three provinces of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang in the northeast, known as China’s rust belt. Back in the 1950s and 1960s, the northeastern provinces where heavy industries including steel, automobiles, and petrochemicals are concentrated had powered the Chinese economy. But in recent decades, they have been beset with industrial decline and a falling population as young people have escaped from the frigid weather and shrinking cities to look for jobs and settle elsewhere.
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According to state media reports, all three provinces reported a net outflow of residents to a combined total of 1.82 million between 2013 and 2019.
Birth rates in the three provinces of Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang were the lowest in China, at 6.45 per thousand, 6.05 per thousand, and 5.73 per thousand respectively, compared to the 2019 national average of 10.48 per thousand. Once the death rates were subtracted from the birth rates, all three provinces reported negative population growth.
At the NPC’s annual session last year, Chen Xiangqun, the executive deputy governor of Liaoning, directly appealed to the central government to allow the province to remove all birth controls and provide financial support for education of preschool children and training of teachers.
In 2018, Liaoning became the country’s first province to offer financial inducements including subsidies for child care to encourage couples to have a second child.


Will the Chinese leadership listen to Chen’s appeal, which is now echoed nationwide as the recent debate has shown?
The National Health Commission’s two statements seemed to suggest that the central government has yet to make up its mind as such a major policy adjustment will lead to other significant policy changes, from education to housing and medical care to other basic public services.
But for many demographers, even if Beijing decided to abolish all birth controls now, that would probably still be too little, too late after nearly 35 years of harsh family planning.
Following decades of government policy encouraging people to marry late and have a child late, Chinese couples’ willingness to bear children is very low, compounded by the high costs associated with raising a child.
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The Health Times, citing official data, reported recently that the infertility rate among Chinese married couples was very high, estimated at between 12.5 and 15 per cent.
Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, gave an apt description of the mammoth difficulties China faced in an interview with the Health Times. Comparing China’s falling birth rates to a rock rolling down the hill, he said now the rock had reached the bottom of the hill, it was going to be really hard to get it back up again.
Wang Xiangwei is a former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post. He is now based in Beijing as editorial adviser to the paper


Is it already too late to defuse China’s population time bomb?

A nurse attends to a brood of newborn babies at Xiangfan People's Hospital in central China’s Hubei Province. Photo: Xinhua

This photo taken on December 13, 2016 shows nurses holding a baby at the Xiyuege Centre, or "Lucky Month Home", in Beijing. Since the late 70s, strict measures in the world's most populous country restricted most couples to only a single offspring with a system of fines for violators and even forced abortions. But concerns over an ageing population, gender imbalances and a shrinking workforce pushed authorities to end the restriction, allowing all couples a second child from January 1. / AFP PHOTO / Greg Baker / TO GO WITH China population politics children social, FOCUS by Becky DAVIS

This Week in Asia

Opinion

Comment


Speculation that Beijing is to further ease or abolish birth controls is growing ahead of the annual session of the National People’s Congress
But after nearly 35 years of harsh family planning policies, whatever Beijing does will be too little, too late. In some areas, the bomb has already exploded



After nearly 35 years of harsh family planning policies, whatever Beijing does will be too little, too late. In some areas, the bomb has already exploded.


China's ageing population

Ageing society

China economy

China Briefing

National People's Congress (NPC)

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

China Briefing | Is it already too late to defuse China’s population time bomb?