bodyType

customContents

entityId

printArticlePageQuery

filter

article

body

urlAlias

articleSectionsContent

articleSeoArticle

articleSourceHeaderArticle

contentSchemaRenderContent

contentSubHeadlineContent

contentHeadlineContent

mainImagePrintArticleArticle

authorBlockPrintArticleArticle

contentSponsorTagContent

articlePianoPaywallContent

scmpYoutubeContent

hooksTrackPageViewArticle

query printArticlePageQuery(
  $entityId: String!
  $customContents: [CustomContentInput]
  $bodyType: BodyFormatTypeEnum
) {
  article(filter: {entityId: $entityId}) {
    entityId
    body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
      json
    }
    urlAlias
    ...articleSectionsContent
    ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4
    ...articleSourceHeaderArticle
    ...contentSchemaRenderContent
    ...contentSubHeadlineContent
    ...contentHeadlineContent
    ...mainImagePrintArticleArticle
    ...authorBlockPrintArticleArticle
    ...contentSponsorTagContent
    ...articlePianoPaywallContent
    ...scmpYoutubeContent
    ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle
    id
  }
}

fragment articlePianoPaywallContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent
}

fragment articleSectionsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection
      ...entityLink
      name
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment articleSeoArticle_3o8td4 on Article {
  ...hooksArticleSeoArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle
  entityId
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
  summary {
    text
  }
  subHeadline {
    text
  }
  body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
    text
  }
  keywords
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  topics {
    name
    entityId
    id
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  images {
    style(filter: {style: "768x768"}) {
      url
    }
  }
  readingTime
}

fragment articleSourceHeaderArticle on Article {
  urlAlias
  ...entityLink
}

fragment authorBlockPrintArticleArticle on Article {
  ...defaultArticleDateContent
  ...authorNamesArticle
}

fragment authorNameAuthor on Author {
  ...entityLink
  name
  entityUuid
}

fragment authorNamesArticle on Article {
  authorLocations
  authors {
    entityId
    location
    ...authorNameAuthor
    id
  }
}

fragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  socialHeadline
  ...contentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
}

fragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
    id
  }
  sections {
    value {
      relatedNewsletters {
        ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
        id
      }
      id
    }
  }
  ... on Article {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...blockquoteQuoteContent
  ...imageContent
  ...inlineWidgetContent
  ...photoGalleryWidgetContent
  ...scmpYoutubeContent
}

fragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  shortUrl
  socialHeadline
  headline
}

fragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  subHeadline {
    json
  }
  summary {
    json
  }
  ...contentSchemaRenderContent
}

fragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent
}

fragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  __typename
  entityId
  entityUuid
  urlAlias
  urlRedirect {
    toUrl
    id
  }
  application {
    entityId
    id
  }
  ... on Section {
    fullSectionPath {
      entityId
      id
    }
    parentSection
  }
  ...helpersAppBarVariantBase
  ...helpersApplicationBase
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...helpersSectionContent
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
}

fragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {
  name
}

fragment helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle on Article {
  entityId
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  disableOffPlatformContent
  sponsorType
  published
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {
  flattenTypeIds
  liveArticle {
    status
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    paywallTypes {
      entityUuid
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        entityId
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {
  entityId
  name
  alternativeName
  description {
    text
  }
  summary {
    text
  }
  homepageDescription {
    text
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {
  authors {
    types
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    sponsor {
      ...sponsorTagSponsor
      name
      type
      id
    }
    id
  }
  ... on Article {
    sponsorType
  }
  ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent
}

fragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdDate
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
}

fragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle
  entityId
  headline
  socialHeadline
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
  images {
    generic_og: style(filter: {style: "og_image_scmp_generic"}) {
      url
    }
    styles(filter: {styles: ["og_image_posties_article", "og_postmag", "og_image_style", "og_image_scmp_analysis", "og_image_scmp_explainer", "og_image_scmp_editorial", "og_image_scmp_fact_check", "og_image_scmp_debate", "og_image_scmp_live", "og_image_scmp_obituary", "og_image_scmp_opinion", "og_image_scmp_review", "og_image_scmp_series", "og_image_scmp_generic"]}) {
      url
      style
    }
    type
  }
  urlAlias
}

fragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        name
        entityId
        description {
          text
        }
        id
      }
    }
    ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  }
  flag
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  ...hooksContentHelperContent
}

fragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle
  ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle
  ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle
  flag
}

fragment hooksPaywallPromiseContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment hooksTrackPageViewArticle on Article {
  entityId
  publishedDate
  headline
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  entityUuid
}

fragment imageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  ...checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent
}

fragment inlineWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent
}

fragment mainImagePrintArticleArticle on Article {
  images {
    title
    url
    isSlideshow
    size_652x446: style(filter: {style: "652x446"}) {
      url
    }
  }
}

fragment photoGalleryDialogContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment photoGalleryWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...photoGalleryDialogContent
}

fragment scmpYoutubeContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  publishedDate
}

fragment sponsorTagSponsor on Sponsor {
  name
  type
  images {
    url
  }
}


sections

types

disableOffPlatformContent

sponsorType

published

headline

socialHeadline

authors

images

publishedDate

updatedDate

summary

subHeadline

keywords

topics

readingTime

authorLocations

entityUuid

Donald Low

With mainland China rapidly easing up on its dynamic zero-Covid policy, the critical question confronting Hong Kong now is whether it wants to get ahead of the curve by removing most (if not all) of its remaining Covid restrictions. Failure to do so may well leave Hong Kong as the last jurisdiction in the world in 2023 to still have pandemic restrictions from 2020.
There is little doubt that Covid restrictions in Hong Kong have delayed, quite unnecessarily, the economic recovery that should have occurred in the second half of the year, if not earlier. In the third quarter of the year, Hong Kong’s economy shrank by a shocking 4.5 per cent compared to a year ago. This comes after two consecutive quarters of contraction (of -3.9 per cent in the first quarter and of -1.3 per cent in the second quarter). In contrast, Singapore’s economy grew by 4.4 per cent in the third quarter, after rising 4.4 per cent and 3.8 per cent in the first and second quarters respectively.
For the year as a whole, Hong Kong’s economy is expected to shrink by about 3 per cent whereas Singapore’s is likely to grow by about 4 per cent. This difference is due almost entirely to Hong Kong clinging to pandemic restrictions far longer than necessary, as well as to China’s sluggish economic performance of 2022 – itself a consequence of zero-Covid.
Not only has Hong Kong paid a huge economic price for its failed Covid policy, but zero-Covid as practised in Hong Kong has done little to save lives or protect its healthcare system. Over a three-month period earlier this year, the Omicron wave killed 0.1 per cent of the Hong Kong population (or one in 1,000 people) despite adherence to a zero-Covid strategy. To put that tragedy into perspective, Britain and the United States each saw about 0.1 per cent of their populations die of Covid over a nine-month period in 2020 – before vaccines were available and when the coronavirus was more lethal than the Omicron variant that brought Hong Kong’s health system to its knees.


Where is China headed?
To be fair to the Hong Kong authorities, their implementation of zero-Covid has been far more humane and much less draconian than the variety practised on the mainland. But after nearly three years of fighting an unwinnable war against Covid, the Chinese people are sick and tired of zero-Covid.
Widespread but short-lived protests against the inhumanity and brutality of zero-Covid finally made obvious what the Chinese authorities should always have known: that the damage caused by zero-Covid to people’s lives and livelihoods was far worse than the public health harms caused by Covid-19 itself.
Now that the Chinese authorities have come to this realisation (even if belatedly), we should expect them to move quickly to abolish the three key planks of dynamic zero-Covid: mass testing, centralised quarantines and lockdowns. The central government is also expected soon to downgrade Covid-19 from the top class of infectious diseases, putting the virus on the same level of endemic diseases such as HIV and viral hepatitis.

In short, the Chinese authorities are abandoning the zero-Covid policy they have pursued dogmatically and defended ideologically for nearly three years without explicitly saying so. Inevitably, they will begin to view Covid-19 not as a mortal enemy, but as a “normal” respiratory disease that society can and must live with. Whether they can pull off this about-face without a significant loss of credibility and public trust remains to be seen, but there is little doubt the policy U-turn is well under way.
The growing contradictions between the official rhetoric of zero-Covid and the reality of pandemic restrictions being loosened quickly will leave the Hong Kong government in an awkward position.
Having defended Covid restrictions in Hong Kong as being consistent with the mainland’s zero-tolerance approach, authorities will find it increasingly difficult to justify why any of these restrictions should still be in place. As these restrictions become less defensible and cause more economic damage, compliance and public support for them will also decline – as we saw on the mainland.
In short, as China quietly drops zero-Covid, Hong Kong’s Covid restrictions will soon become publicly indefensible and economically unsustainable, if they aren’t already so.

Exiting the pandemic in Hong Kong
In January this year, as Hong Kong was just entering the worst of the Omicron wave, I had written a piece arguing that not only was zero-Covid irrational in Hong Kong’s context, but that there was “a major but underappreciated risk of Hong Kong pursuing zero-Covid longer than necessary. When the Chinese authorities eventually decide to live with Covid, they are unlikely to do so with a bang. …(W)hen China changes tack, it will do so gradually, quietly, and without any fanfare. Cities that have stronger governmental capacity, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, may also be allowed to experiment more boldly to live with Covid”.
I also pointed out that Hong Kong might struggle to adapt if mainland authorities were to shift to a different Covid-19 strategy, as “the absence of an explicit signal from Beijing would make it harder for Hong Kong authorities to set clear policy directions, and to calibrate its Covid policies accordingly. … This is hardly conducive for restoring Hong Kong’s position as the pre-eminent hub for international firms trying to enter the Chinese market, even as cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen open up with greater vigour”.
Is Hong Kong finally ready to reopen to the world in 2023?
The risk of Hong Kong maintaining Covid restrictions far longer than necessary, and causing it to be less competitive against other Chinese cities that have been more isolated than Hong Kong has been the last three years, may well become a reality – and faster than Hong Kong’s policymakers realise.
Clearly, the only sensible and prudent approach is for the Hong Kong government to anticipate that cities on the mainland might ease their pandemic controls quickly, and to stay one step ahead by getting rid of Hong Kong’s remaining Covid restrictions before they cause the city to be even less competitive on the global stage.
Specifically this would mean three things. First, the three days of medical surveillance of all inbound travellers should be scrapped or, at the very least, replaced with just a PCR test on arrival. Now that Covid-19 is already endemic in Hong Kong, there is no justifiable reason to subject inbound travellers to stricter requirements than residents.

Second, and also as a result of Covid-19 becoming endemic in Hong Kong, contact tracing should be discontinued. This would also allow the “Leave Home Safe” app to be retired.
Third, Hong Kong’s masking rules are increasingly out of step with global best practices. They should either be abolished, or replaced with a requirement to mask up only on public transport and in healthcare facilities (as is the case in Singapore).
A failure to do these common-sense things will not only prolong Hong Kong’s economic misery in the short term, but also risk doing long-term damage to the city’s international standing – especially as Covid-era restrictions on the mainland are jettisoned quickly.
Donald Low is senior lecturer and professor of practice in public policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, director of the university’s Institute for Emerging Market Studies, and director of Leadership and Public Policy Executive Education.


As Beijing eases zero-Covid, can Hong Kong get ahead of the curve and scrap remaining rules?

People lie in hospital beds outside the Caritas Medical Centre in Hong Kong in February 2022. Photo: AFP

A health worker takes a swab sample from a woman to test for Covid-19 in the Jing’an district in Shanghai on Wednesday. Photo: AFP

Police clash with residents in Shanghai in November 2022 during protests against China’s zero-Covid policy. Photo: AFP via Getty Images/TNS

A man scan the QR code of the “Leave Home Safe” mobile app outside M+ in West Kowloon. Photo: Edmond So

This Week in Asia

Opinion

Comment

Asia


Hong Kong’s economy has suffered as a result of clinging to Covid-19 restrictions far longer than necessary, in contrast to regional rival Singapore
Without clear directions from Beijing, Hong Kong might struggle to adapt to a different Covid-19 strategy, undermining its efforts to regain economic competitiveness



Hong Kong’s economy has suffered as a result of clinging to Covid-19 restrictions far longer than necessary, in contrast to regional rival Singapore.


Coronavirus pandemic

Coronavirus pandemic: All stories

Coronavirus Hong Kong

Coronavirus China

China’s zero-Covid protests

Hong Kong reopens: life after quarantine

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

Asian Angle

Asian Angle | As Beijing eases zero-Covid, can Hong Kong get ahead of the curve and scrap remaining rules?