Why US-China competition will shape Asean’s vision for the next 20 years

Asean is preparing a new strategic vision to guide the bloc over the next two decades, but to succeed it must strengthen its autonomy and ability to manoeuvre skilfully between the world’s two largest powers: the United States and China.

The Asean Community Vision (ACV) 2045, to be implemented next year, aims to be “visionary, inspirational, robust, comprehensive, inclusive, and forward-looking” and “address current and future challenges” both within and beyond the region, while reflecting the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ “spirit of unity in diversity and cooperation”.

Beyond these lofty goals, the ACV must be bolder than Asean’s past visions, blueprints and frameworks in offering exceptional strategies with credible approaches to ensuring long-term peace, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. Asean must also strengthen its strategic autonomy to withstand pressure to align with either side as US-China competition intensifies.

Security and stability in the Indo-Pacific are increasingly being shaped by the strategic competition for influence between the US and China. It’s clear that China’s ambition to become a global superpower equal to the US, which opposes Beijing’s rise, has caused intense rivalry. This affects Southeast Asia as regional countries try to avoid being pulled too far into either power’s orbit.

As an established superpower since 1945, the US will do whatever it can to maintain its leading role in the international system and prevent other powers from challenging its supremacy. It is already revitalising alliances with like-minded countries to counter China’s rise, which it sees as a threat to the US-led liberal world order.

Meanwhile, a stronger China is no longer shy about flexing its geopolitical muscles. As its economic and military power grows, so does its confidence in becoming the next superpower. Beijing is increasingly seeking to challenge US pre-eminence through military expansion and force projection, and the promotion of its one-party, authoritarian style of government as an alternative to Western governance models.

The success of Asean’s post-2025 vision, therefore, will depend on its ability to sustain strategic autonomy and manoeuvre agilely between the US and China.

Asean centrality, unity pivotal

For Asean to maintain strategic autonomy – and prevent outside influences from dividing it or undermining peace, stability and prosperity – it needs to act as a reliable facilitator of cooperation and self-sufficiency and avoid relying too much on any one power to ensure the region’s security. This demands greater internal consensus, the preservation of Asean centrality and unity, and timely collective statements on key regional and global issues.

Maintaining Asean centrality will demand adept navigation of US-China tensions based on the principle of neutrality. The ACV should strategically leverage existing frameworks to encourage constructive cooperation between the two major powers and avert direct confrontation, which would surely have disastrous effects on the region.

If Asean wishes to preserve its guiding role as the driver of regional cooperation beyond 2025, its vision for the next 20 years must strengthen strategic autonomy and credible responsiveness amid the US-China rivalry, while withstanding pressure to align with either side.

For the bloc to develop its strategic autonomy to respond to strategic competition between the US and China, a number of factors should be considered.

Over the next half-century, Asean will need to rely primarily on its own capabilities to manage regional economic, social and political issues, rather than depending heavily on any major power. Excessive reliance on an external actor could restrict the bloc’s ability to take a strong stance on issues that matter most to the region. Asean should also do all it can to encourage open and honest dialogue between member states, which will reduce mutual suspicion and prevent rival ambitions from dividing the bloc.

In today’s complex geopolitical environment, determined leadership is essential to tackle pressing security challenges and solidify Asean’s role as an unbiased and credible driver of security initiatives and policy frameworks such as its regional forum; East Asia summit; “plus three” talks with China, Japan and South Korea; and defence ministers’ meetings with multiple dialogue partners.

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Without cohesive and robust leadership, the ACV could struggle to meaningfully influence members’ behaviour or stop major powers from capitalising on Asean’s consensus-based approach.

To realise Asean’s vision of transforming Southeast Asia’s destiny by 2045, the bloc must calibrate its modus operandi of consensus, non-interference and consensual decision-making to bolster strategic autonomy. This will expand the scope for balanced security arrangements that reduce major-power rivalry.

Moving forward, Asean must conduct a comprehensive review of the implementation of its charter to strengthen common positions and improve dispute-resolution mechanisms. The Asean Charter, which came into force in 2008, was designed to create the legal framework for a rules-based organisation, but its provisions for periodic reviews under Article 50 have yet to be fully actualised.

Asean centrality also requires reinforcement. Though enshrined in the charter to position the bloc as the driving force in external partnerships, it remains something of a myth: an underdeveloped concept without consensus on its practical application. Clarifying what centrality means and its role in engagements with partners can validate Asean as a flexible stabilising presence amid global power shifts.

Major powers currently remain unconvinced of Asean centrality’s weight in managing geopolitical competition. Renewing this principle with tangible applications would empower the bloc to actively steer regional architectures that maintain peace, prosperity and security. Without revitalisation, Asean’s strategic autonomy will face unrelenting pressures that weaken its vision and progressive role in safeguarding regional cooperation long-term.

Agility, nuance required

Asean’s autonomy will continue to be tested by US-China strategic competition. The bloc’s capacity to influence great-power relations will rely on agile manoeuvring and nuanced assessments of this dynamic, which is often influenced by uncertainty, mutual suspicion, jostling for dominance, and a mix of conflict and cooperation.

To preserve strategic autonomy, the ACV must address prevailing US perspectives on the region as well as Washington’s antipathy towards China. It must also seek to validate that China’s rise is peaceful and non-threatening to regional stability, at a time when disputes over the South China Sea and cross-strait tensions remain unresolved.

Ultimately, Asean’s strategic autonomy in relation to great-power relations depends on those powers’ trust in the bloc’s capacity to maintain strategic rivalry within tolerable limits. The ACV should inject new vigour into Asean’s autonomous role as a constructive influence sustaining healthy US-China cooperation, thereby allowing the bloc to withstand pressure to separately align with either of the world’s superpowers.

Pou Sothirak is a retired academic and distinguished senior adviser to the Cambodian Centre for Regional Studies, an independent foreign-policy think tank. Him Raksmey is executive director of the Cambodian Centre for Regional Studies.