bodyType

customContents

entityId

printArticlePageQuery

filter

article

body

urlAlias

articleSectionsContent

articleSeoArticle

articleSourceHeaderArticle

contentSchemaRenderContent

contentSubHeadlineContent

contentHeadlineContent

mainImagePrintArticleArticle

authorBlockPrintArticleArticle

contentSponsorTagContent

articlePianoPaywallContent

scmpYoutubeContent

hooksTrackPageViewArticle

query printArticlePageQuery(
  $entityId: String!
  $customContents: [CustomContentInput]
  $bodyType: BodyFormatTypeEnum
) {
  article(filter: {entityId: $entityId}) {
    entityId
    body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
      json
    }
    urlAlias
    ...articleSectionsContent
    ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4
    ...articleSourceHeaderArticle
    ...contentSchemaRenderContent
    ...contentSubHeadlineContent
    ...contentHeadlineContent
    ...mainImagePrintArticleArticle
    ...authorBlockPrintArticleArticle
    ...contentSponsorTagContent
    ...articlePianoPaywallContent
    ...scmpYoutubeContent
    ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle
    id
  }
}

fragment articlePianoPaywallContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent
}

fragment articleSectionsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sectionsV2 {
    value {
      __typename
      ... on Section {
        name
        published
      }
      ... on VideoSection {
        name
        published
      }
      ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection
      ...entityLink
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment articleSeoArticle_3o8td4 on Article {
  ...hooksArticleSeoArticle
  ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle
  entityId
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
  summary {
    text
  }
  subHeadline {
    text
  }
  body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
    text
  }
  keywords
  sectionsV2 {
    value {
      __typename
      ... on Section {
        name
      }
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  topics {
    name
    entityId
    id
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  images {
    style(filter: {style: "768x768"}) {
      url
    }
  }
  readingTime
}

fragment articleSourceHeaderArticle on Article {
  urlAlias
  ...entityLink
}

fragment authorBlockPrintArticleArticle on Article {
  ...defaultArticleDateContent
  ...authorNamesArticle
}

fragment authorNameAuthor on Author {
  ...entityLink
  name
  entityUuid
}

fragment authorNamesArticle on Article {
  authorLocations
  authors {
    entityId
    location
    ...authorNameAuthor
    id
  }
}

fragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  socialHeadline
  ...contentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
}

fragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
    id
  }
  sectionsV2 {
    value {
      __typename
      ... on Section {
        relatedNewsletters {
          ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
          id
        }
      }
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  ... on Article {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...blockquoteQuoteContent
  ...hooksInlinePlusWidgetContent
  ...imageContent
  ...inlineWidgetContent
  ...photoGalleryWidgetContent
  ...scmpYoutubeContent
}

fragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  shortUrl
  socialHeadline
  headline
  ... on Video {
    youtubeId
  }
}

fragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  subHeadline {
    json
  }
  summary {
    json
  }
  ...contentSchemaRenderContent
}

fragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent
}

fragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  __typename
  entityId
  entityUuid
  urlAlias
  urlRedirect {
    toUrl
    id
  }
  application {
    entityId
    id
  }
  ... on Section {
    fullSectionPath {
      entityId
      id
    }
    parentSection
  }
  ...helpersAppBarVariantBase
  ...helpersApplicationBase
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...helpersSectionContent
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
}

fragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on SectionUnion {
  __isSectionUnion: __typename
  ... on Section {
    name
  }
  ... on VideoSection {
    name
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle on Article {
  entityId
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  sectionsV2 {
    value {
      __typename
      ... on Section {
        entityId
      }
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  disableOffPlatformContent
  sponsorType
  published
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
}

fragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {
  flattenTypeIds
  liveArticle {
    status
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    paywallTypes {
      entityUuid
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sectionsV2 {
    value {
      __typename
      ... on Section {
        entityId
      }
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sectionsV2 {
    value {
      __typename
      ... on Section {
        entityId
      }
      ... on VideoSection {
        entityId
      }
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        entityId
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {
  entityId
  name
  alternativeName
  description {
    text
  }
  summary {
    text
  }
  homepageDescription {
    text
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {
  authors {
    types
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    sponsor {
      ...sponsorTagSponsor
      name
      type
      id
    }
    id
  }
  ... on Article {
    sponsorType
  }
  ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent
}

fragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdDate
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
}

fragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle
  entityId
  headline
  socialHeadline
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
  images {
    generic_og: style(filter: {style: "og_image_scmp_generic"}) {
      url
    }
    styles(filter: {styles: ["og_postmag", "og_image_style", "og_image_scmp_analysis", "og_image_scmp_explainer", "og_image_scmp_editorial", "og_image_scmp_fact_check", "og_image_scmp_debate", "og_image_scmp_live", "og_image_scmp_obituary", "og_image_scmp_opinion", "og_image_scmp_review", "og_image_scmp_series", "og_image_scmp_generic"]}) {
      url
      style
    }
    type
  }
  urlAlias
}

fragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        name
        entityId
        description {
          text
        }
        id
      }
    }
    ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  }
  flag
  sectionsV2 {
    value {
      __typename
      ... on Section {
        name
      }
      ... on VideoSection {
        name
      }
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  ...hooksContentHelperContent
}

fragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle
  ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle
  ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle
  flag
}

fragment hooksInlinePlusWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment hooksPaywallPromiseContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
}

fragment hooksTrackPageViewArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  publishedDate
  headline
  sectionsV2 {
    value {
      __typename
      ... on Section {
        name
      }
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  entityUuid
}

fragment imageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  ...checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent
}

fragment inlineWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent
}

fragment mainImagePrintArticleArticle on Article {
  images {
    title
    url
    isSlideshow
    size_652x446: style(filter: {style: "652x446"}) {
      url
    }
  }
}

fragment photoGalleryDialogContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment photoGalleryWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...photoGalleryDialogContent
}

fragment scmpYoutubeContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  publishedDate
}

fragment sponsorTagSponsor on Sponsor {
  name
  type
  images {
    url
  }
}


types

sectionsV2

disableOffPlatformContent

sponsorType

published

headline

socialHeadline

authors

images

publishedDate

updatedDate

summary

subHeadline

keywords

topics

readingTime

authorLocations

Romain Caillaud

The State Administration Council’s (SAC) coercive and controlling approach to the economy does not bode well for Myanmar’s mid- to long-term prospects.
In the past quarter, conflicts in Rakhine and Shan States have intensified, and humanitarian crises nationwide have worsened. These issues have compounded the negative impacts of the SAC’s economic policies, which seek to secure the junta’s interests through control and coercion.
The World Bank’s June 2024 issue of its biannual Myanmar Economic Monitor forecast a rise in gross domestic product by only 1 per cent through to the 2024 financial year ending March 2025, while economic output would remain 9 per cent lower than pre-Covid-19 levels. The bank also warned in a separate report on Myanmar’s public finances of “a weakening of budget transparency practices”. Publication of several hitherto regular updates on government financial policies and quarterly budget reports has been halted since October 2023. Inflation data and select monthly economic indicators reports have not been published since August 2022.
The SAC’s partial loss of control over border-trade crossings with Bangladesh, China, India and Thailand has exacerbated challenges for importers and exporters but opened certain economic, trade and governance opportunities for groups resisting the junta. The kyat’s continued weakening reached a market rate of 4,450 kyat to the US dollar in late June, from 1,330 kyat in February 2021. The SAC’s manipulation of foreign exchange policies, which are mainly aimed at preserving the regime’s interests, has also earned it a potential US$1.8 billion in 2023 as the growing gap between rates creates arbitrage opportunities. This comes at a substantial cost to Myanmar’s overall economy.

The SAC’s militarisation of the economy continued with additional reshuffles in key economic posts and further restrictions on economic actors. Two technocrats in the SAC’s economic machinery were removed from office in late May. Aung Naing Oo was a minister in the SAC chairman’s office and chairman of the Myanmar Special Economic Zone Central Working Committee. Maung Maung Win was deputy minister of planning and finance.
Aung Naing Oo was a key promoter of Myanmar as an investor-friendly country as director general of the Directorate of Investment and Company Administration during the Thein Sein administration from 2011 to 2016. He became the permanent secretary in the Ministry of Investment and Foreign Economic Relations under the National League for Democracy government. Maung Maung Win, former Exchange and Securities Commission chairman, had held his deputy minister role for over a decade.
On the same day, Nyo Saw, a lieutenant-general, chairman of military conglomerate Myanmar Economic Corporation, and adviser to the SAC chairman, became the chair of the Foreign Exchange Supervisory Committee. He replaced Mya Tun Oo, a general, deputy prime minister of the SAC and chair of the Myanmar Investment Commission. Mya Tun Oo had taken the role in September 2023 as predecessor Moe Myint Tun was being investigated on corruption charges.

Crackdowns also continued in the name of stabilising the exchange rate, targeting gold and currency traders, palm oil importers, rice merchants and retailers, property buyers and developers, and banks. Punitive measures included arrests and detentions, such as those of a Japanese executive of a supermarket joint venture, and prominent business tycoon Serge Pun who has business links to Singapore and Hong Kong. The SAC’s coercive approach has backfired as market players will either stop or hide their activities, leading to heightened scarcity and demand and soaring prices.
Earlier, the Ministry of Transport and Communications, under Mya Tun Oo, mandated that telecommunications operators and fibre optic internet providers introduce restrictions to their services and prevent access by users to virtual private networks, Facebook, Instagram, X and WhatsApp, by end-May. The SAC had also completely cut access to phone and internet services in certain conflict-affected areas. The additional restrictions have created substantial challenges for many businesses and organisations in Myanmar that rely on social media and chat apps for daily activities and communications with staff, partners and stakeholders outside Myanmar.
The SAC has turned to Myanmar’s neighbours to alleviate the economic crisis at home. In May, the Ministry of Commerce introduced a process for cross-border barter trade transactions. The antiquated nature and ambiguous parameters of that process meant it was dead on arrival. A rupee-kyat settlement mechanism agreed between New Delhi and Naypyidaw in January was first put to use on July 2 to complete the sale of a shipment of Myanmar pulses worth about US$120,000 to India. Similar mechanisms have been established with Thailand and China as the SAC seeks to de-dollarise its cross-border trade. It remains to be seen whether much of the future flows will move away from the dominant US dollar, as these transactions apparently use the undervalued official exchange rate.

The SAC is also revisiting large infrastructure projects such as the Dawei deep-sea port and the Myitsone Dam. Given the conflicts raging at or near the locations of these projects, it is unlikely that much, if any, progress will be made in the years ahead. The controversial nature of the Myitsone Dam, which past administrations had suspended (and kept suspended) in the previous decade, also brings into question the extent to which China may seek to protect its strategic and economic interests in Myanmar. China is not alone in its concern that the current quagmire in Myanmar would increasingly threaten its economic interests. Battles continue to rage across Myanmar, and the impacts of the intensifying conflict are increasingly spilling over borders, negatively affecting the economies and people of several of Myanmar’s neighbours. The sense of gloom and doom also continues for Myanmar’s economy as the coup wears on.
Romain Caillaud is an Associate Fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, the Principal of SIPA Partners and the Operations Lead of Catalyst Economics. This article was first published by ISEAS – Yusof Ishak’s commentary website fulcrum.sg.


Myanmar’s economy sinks deeper into quagmire as junta extends coercive control

Vendors selling vegetables at a street market in Kyaukme in Myanmar’s northern Shan State earlier this month. Photo: AFP

A driver hands over Myanmar kyats to an attendant as payment for fuel at a gas station in Botahtaung township in Yangon, Myanmar, in November 2021. Photo: AP

Myanmar’s General Mya Tun Oo in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, in June 2022. Photo: EPA-EFE

The site of the Myitsone Dam project. Photo: Oliver Slow

This Week in Asia

Opinion

Asia Opinion

Restrictions and punitive measures have hampered trade and investment, leading to heightened scarcity and demand, and soaring prices


Restrictions and punitive measures have hampered trade and investment, leading to heightened scarcity and demand and soaring prices.


Myanmar

War and conflict

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

Asian Angle

.css-1pcrwvc{color:#2aa191;}Asian Angle | Myanmar’s economy sinks deeper into quagmire as junta extends coercive control

.css-1mniedq{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;}Restrictions and punitive measures have hampered trade and investment, leading to heightened scarcity and demand, and soaring prices

Asian Angle | Myanmar’s economy sinks deeper into quagmire as junta extends coercive control

Restrictions and punitive measures have hampered trade and investment, leading to heightened scarcity and demand, and soaring prices