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Global monetary policy

Global monetary policy
The latest news, analysis and opinion on Global monetary policy. In-depth analysis, industry insights and expert opinion.
A man walks past a currency exchange office in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on April 1. While many expect the US dollar to keep depreciating, the currency still accounts for nearly 60 per cent of foreign reserve holdings and almost 90 per cent of foreign exchange transactions. Photo: EPA-EFE
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Is the ‘Trump shock’ the end of dollar hegemony?

A bear market for the US dollar is overdue but that doesn’t mean the dominant reserve currency should – or could – be replaced any time soon.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | A world economy on the brink could use some win-win cooperation

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Banking & finance

Opinion | Trump wants a great monetary reset. Where can the world hide?

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Trump threatening the Fed shows where political risks really lie

The erosion of governance standards in the US shows advanced markets have more consequential political risks than many emerging economies.

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US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell speaks to the press in Washington, on September 18, 2024. US President Donald Trump has accused the Fed of dragging its feet in loosening monetary policy. Photo: Reuters
Yuan

Yuan trade settlements on rise amid ‘soaring volatility’ in US Treasury market

Washington’s policies seen opening door to greater yuan internationalisation, undermining but not removing US dollar’s dominance in global trade.

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European Union

ECB cuts interest rates for 7th time in a row amid global trade tension

The cut was widely expected by analysts given the sudden shadow cast by Trump’s April 2 announcement of unexpectedly high tariffs.

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Donald Trump

Trump slams US Fed chair Powell, urges ‘termination’ for slowness

It was not immediately clear if Trump was referring to the scheduled end of Powell’s term, or if Trump was seeking to remove Powell as chair.

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US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday. Photo: AFP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | World is ready to cut US dollar down to size – but not too quickly

The US dollar is too central to the global financial system for the so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord to find traction outside the US. But the search is on for alternatives.

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Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA)

Hong Kong banks keep their prime rates steady after HKMA, Fed hold fire

The Fed is seen cutting rates again by midyear, while Hong Kong banks may lower their prime rates by 0.125 percentage points.

China trade

Economists slam Trump’s currency claims, explain why Beijing wants yuan stable

Calling US president’s currency-depreciation allegations ‘ungrounded’, analysts say Beijing does not want to see the yuan weaken too much.

China’s central bank has repeatedly signalled its determination to stabilise the yuan. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Why dangerous debt dynamics aren’t catching up with economic policy

As stock markets play a disproportionately large role in influencing the fortunes of economies, a correction could be on the horizon.

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange shortly before the closing bell on February 25, 2020. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Why Asian central banks are starting to decouple from the Fed

Eager to boost domestic demand and more able to preserve financial stability, the region’s policymakers are embracing greater monetary independence.

Diplomacy

Macroscope | Trump’s ‘big stick diplomacy’ won’t go far in today’s world system

Conflicting monetary goals and budget constraints will undermine the administration’s ability to exert influence from a position of strength.

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Banking & finance

Opinion | Will Trump’s AI and energy goals burst the US credit bubble?

US policies regarding fossil fuels and technology are reshaping monetary norms as the country seeks to benchmark itself against China.

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An illustration shows a bitcoin mock-up in front of an image of Donald Trump, on November 22, 2024. Photo: EPA-EFE
Banking & finance

Dollar strength more worrying to Asian stocks than China tariffs: Hang Seng Bank

Prospects for Asian equities remain positive due to China’s stimulus measures and strong Asean trade links, Hang Seng Bank official says.

Hong Kong banks left their prime lending rates unchanged on Monday. Photo: Shutterstock
Singapore

Singapore’s president cites global ‘mistakes’ as inflation worries Davos

Tharman Shanmugaratnam, a veteran economist and ex-finance minister, said that inflation would be lower if not for 15 years of mistakes.

Interest rates

Hong Kong holds fire on monetary policy, keeping base rate at 4.75%

HSBC and other major banks will only announce their interest-rate decisions on Monday, the first working day of the Lunar New Year.

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Banking & finance

Hong Kong’s banks gird for lean times as 9-month profit growth slows

Net interest margin narrowed to 1.5 per cent in the first nine months last year from 1.67 per cent in 2023, according to HKMA data.

ATM machines in Central on 4 August 2024. Photo: Eugene Lee
United States

Macroscope | Why bond markets refuse to hop aboard the Trump train

A sharp sell-off in bond markets despite the Fed’s easing cycle shows investors are worried about the uncertainty around Trump’s second term.

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United States

Opinion | Trump’s plans could trigger liquidity crises across Europe and Asia

Inflationary pressure and a growing deficit would turn the US into a liquidity-sucking force.

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Yuan

To boost yuan, China’s central bank allows firms to borrow more foreign debt

For companies that have reached the upper limit of overseas financing, a relaxation may be welcome, but the move’s effectiveness remains unclear as rate spread with US dollar widens.

China’s yuan is dropping to lows unseen in several years against the US dollar. Photo: Reuters
Yuan

China’s central bank rhetoric on yuan stability takes aim at depreciation risks

An exchange rate of 7.6 to the US dollar by the end of 2025 could be on the cards, analysts say, as Donald Trump’s impending policies may further weaken the battered yuan.

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China’s yuan remains under pressure as the safe-haven US dollar strengthens amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve will slow the pace of rate cuts this year. Image: Shutterstock
United States

Opinion | Up in the air whether US economic arrows will hit the mark

If the Trump 2.0 team is as uncoordinated as Trump 1.0, we will see arrows flying everywhere.

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Interest rates

Hong Kong lenders may cut prime rate to record low 5% in 2025

A straw poll of 10 analysts surveyed by the Post expect up to three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and HKMA totalling as much 75 basis points.

United States

Macroscope | Trump vs the Fed: why 2025 could be the year things get ugly

The Fed is making it clear that Trump’s policies come at a price, one that he might be unwilling to pay if inflation rises more sharply.

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Donald Trump, then US president, looks on as Jerome Powell, his nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, speaks at the White House in Washington on November 2, 2017. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Opinion | In a world fraught with risk, Trump will add to the bumps

Amid increasing geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions, investors are counting on the US central bank to keep printing money.

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Passengers at Hong Kong International Airport on July 20, a day after a global IT service shortage affected air travel. Cybersecurity threats and extreme weather events are among the global risks that could become more severe in the coming years, contributing to financial woes across borders. Photo: Xiaomei Chen
Hong Kong

Editorial | Hong Kong interest rates volatility price to pay as spectre of Trump tariffs looms

Uncertainty over when next US cuts will come in 2025 prompts Hong Kong Monetary Authority chief to send out warning.

Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA)

Hong Kong banks cut lending rates, but HKMA warns of volatility ahead

The latest rate cuts by lenders such as HSBC and Bank of China will lighten the monthly burden on mortgage borrowers by about HK$351 to HK$22,452.

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