West Asian nations cannot wish away their neighbours – they must take responsibility for making peace

Leaders of regional states trapped in a cycle of conflict must step up to the plate to stop another march to war over Iran
If they cannot, the result will only be a continuation of the perpetual instability, on-the-ground misery and poor prospects for collective success that have plagued the region for decades

Sam Sasan Shoamanesh

Published: 3:48pm, 3 Sep 2019

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With the war drums beating again in West Asia – this time in the Persian Gulf towards the shores of Iran – another catastrophe is in the making. War with Iran, as my colleague Irvin Studin of Global Brief recently observed, “would further radicalise America, collapse the European Union outright through unprecedented refugee flows, and risk a kinetic clash between the United States and Russia”.

There is also a Chinese dimension to this looming threat. China and Iran enjoy age-old amicable relations – according to some sources, dating as far back as 139BC, and possibly even earlier, when diplomatic relations, cooperation and trade were established between the Han dynasty and the Parthian empire. As representatives of two continuous non-Western civilisations, they share common histories of notable civilisational achievements and greatness over millennia.

But by the dint of changing tides in history, both nations have also experienced national humiliation at the hands and encroachment of Western imperialism, and pride themselves on turning the page, restoring their national dignity in the face of foreign interference and meddling, and reassuming their rightful place in the community of nations on their own, independent, terms.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) shakes hands with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in Beijing last month. Photo: AFP

These common historical memories have not only influenced Chinese and Iranian strategic cultures and world views, but also, in many ways, define Sino-Iranian relations in the modern age. The contemporary “comprehensive strategic partnership” between Tehran and Beijing is rooted in this background but also a pragmatic and cold calculus that considers close and reinforced relations as being advantageous to both countries’ national interests, writ large.

This is to say nothing of the obvious relations and growing investments of China in the wider region, including with Saudi Arabia and other states in West Asia, commonly known as the Middle East.

As such, China is unlikely to stand by idly and watch the region further destabilised. Beijing fully appreciates the importance and unique geography of Iran – and indeed the importance of the region in toto – to its own grand strategy and to the full implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative. It also knows that any clash with Iran, apart from metastasising into a regional war, would also likely exacerbate great-power tensions and even possibly precipitate direct conflict among them.

There is great urgency to defuse this growing crisis – including through the restoration of the Iran nuclear deal to the fullest extent possible, and by building on the initial diplomatic success of the agreement, notwithstanding the American withdrawal, to drive collaboration on other regional issues. More broadly, there is a pressing need to find sustainable solutions to the region’s security dilemma through permanent and inclusive mechanisms designed to ensure effective emergency communication, as well as to promote dialogue and trust-building measures with the aim of preventing conflict.

Here is a veritable fact: the region will not see peace and security if states themselves do not assume responsibility, first and foremost, for their own geopolitical space in a manner that embraces regional diplomacy and dialogue – including with adversaries – and is conducive to common security.

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To realise a more peaceful regional landscape, countries must recognise that they cannot wish away their neighbours, but must instead work towards detente, reconciling differences or, at a minimum, negotiating a modus vivendi with sufficient safeguards to prevent all-out war.

Such rapprochement is especially pressing in the subregion of the Persian Gulf, where tensions between the littoral states are becoming increasingly acute, in particular, in the context of the Saudi-Iranian bras de fer.

Iranian revolutionary guard soldiers in a military parade. Photo: EPA

No limited, subregional security framework that excludes key regional states and relies on partnerships with outside powers alone at the expense of the security (or security perceptions) of other states can be a viable model for long-term, sustainable stability. Such schemes will only exacerbate the region’s security dilemma and serve as a source of regional division and instability.

Only strategic alliances that can have a multiplier effect on regional security through inclusivity, dialogue and confidence-building can be a recipe for regional stability. Most immediately, to de-escalate the foolish march to yet another war in the region, an inclusive multilateral ministerial summit should be organised – possibly by way of a special emergency session of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia, with the participation of all West Asian states, member states, observer states and international organisations – specifically the United Nations, the Arab League and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and ideally with the support and active participation of the permanent members of the UN Security Council, leading EU states and representatives.

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The summit could facilitate discussion on whether an enforceable non-aggression pact – including the necessary guarantees, and supported by the UN and other key actors – could be negotiated, starting with the Persian Gulf littoral states. This is not abstract. The Iranians recently put this very proposal on the table – a proposal that included the revival of the idea of a new regional security arrangement among the littoral states of the Persian Gulf on the basis of paragraph eight of UN Security Council Resolution 598.

US national security adviser John Bolton. Photo: The Washington Post

Moscow has reacted positively, as has Beijing. These overtures and opportunities should be explored and given due consideration as part of the ongoing efforts to defuse this brewing crisis.

Also, why not appoint a special envoy of the UN secretary general in response to the crisis and pursuant to the aforementioned Security Council resolution, with a specific mandate and full authority to work with states in the region and other relevant actors to bring the parties together – starting with an agenda dedicated to de-escalating the tensions in the Persian Gulf, and specifically vis-à-vis the Strait of Hormuz? A skilled envoy, respected by all sides, could work to commit the parties jointly to design and implement confidence-building measures, as well as facilitate discussions on strengthening the region’s mechanisms for security dialogue and conflict management.

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Building on the momentum, a summit could quickly become a standing forum, serving as a regional platform for security dialogue, where the various threat perceptions and emerging security crises could be discussed and treated in an institutionalised manner, without the outbreak of war.

The countries must work jointly towards establishing a new regional security and cooperation architecture – one based on respect for international law and the fundamental principles enshrined in the UN Charter.

A sharply divided region, without the institutions, structures, mechanisms and processes in place to facilitate proper emergency communication, security dialogue and cooperation, as well as conflict management, is a region that is doomed to long-term decline.

It will take responsible leadership to see the forest beyond the trees, build trust among allies and foes alike, and work towards realising a more promising future for the region’s people, and collective West Asian success in this new century.

Sam Sasan Shoamanesh is co-founder and vice-president of the Institute for 21st Century Questions, and managing editor of Global Brief magazine. This article is a modified version of the original published in Global Brief. The views expressed are the author’s alone.

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