Adamberry said six students from Hong Kong would join the school’s 600-strong intake in August – a record high, and a significant increase on the average of one or two in previous academic years.

“These inquiries are made mostly by Western and Cantonese families in Hong Kong who are looking to relocate to Singapore for personal reasons … and they are exploring alternatives for their future,” said Adamberry, who expected the number of Hong Kong students to climb further.

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This Week in Asia spoke to nine property agents and international schools, and more than half pointed to a recent uptick in inquiries from Hong Kong residents, giving them the sense that more Hongkongers were considering starting a new life in the Lion City.

But the property-sector professionals were quick to point out that few of these inquiries had translated into direct sales for now.

Christine Sun, head of research and consultancy at OrangeTee & Tie, said only two homes marketed by her firm were bought by Hongkongers between January and May and none in June.

Last year, 13 sales transactions involved Hong Kong residents and the figure was 37 in 2017.

PUSH FACTORS

John Hu, founder and principal consultant of Hong Kong-based John Hu Migration Consulting, said general migration inquiries had doubled in the last two months and his business had improved by 40 per cent.

Gavin She, property consultancy Savills’ Hong Kong director, also noted a spike in Hongkongers asking about Singapore property.

“I believe some people have started opening accounts in private banks in Singapore but I have not seen a huge amount of real estate transactions yet as the foreign-buyer stamp duty in Singapore is relatively high,” explained She, who added that immigration policies in Singapore were “very strict”.

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“I have heard of late there has been greater interest by wealthy Hong Kong businessmen in buying Singapore property and when they do that … they are also looking for permanent residency,” he said.

Chandran V.R., managing director of property firm Cosmopolitan Real Estate, said prospective buyers from Hong Kong felt Singapore was more spacious and its homes offered more value for money.

His clients – mostly families with one or two children – often came with a budget of between S$5 million and S$20 million (US$3.7 million to US$14.7 million), and opted for listings in prime residential areas such as Singapore’s shopping district, Orchard Road.

The latest government figures show Singapore’s private home prices are on the rise, but even for those with smaller budgets and despite the additional buyers’ stamp duty, homes there are still more affordable than in Hong Kong.

A 2018 report by property site 99.co revealed that a buyer with S$2 million could afford a 1,000 sq ft flat at Cairnhill Circle, located near Orchard. But the same amount could only buy a 448 sq ft flat in Hong Kong’s Kennedy Town.

Added Chandran: “There is also a strong sense of safety and security due to the tight rule of law, and there is more stability here.”

Other factors such as the low crime rate and absence of natural disasters were a draw for George Chan, a Hongkonger who relocated to Singapore last year with his wife and their two-year-old son.

“Growing up in a more cosmopolitan environment would help [my son] be better equipped for the future that will be more and more globalised,” added 38-year-old Chan, who works in the finance industry. “The recent chaos also reaffirmed my decision.”

A HISTORY OF MIGRATION

While many Hongkongers descended from families that emigrated from mainland China, the city’s residents themselves are also known for being emigrants.

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Many of them went to Canada, where 241,095 Hong Kong-born residents lived in 1996. Canadian census data points to the possibility that thousands of Hongkongers who obtained Canadian citizenship did eventually return to Hong Kong, but researchers suggest there is a new trend of them heading back West, as they feel stifled by Beijing’s tightening hold over the city.

Lee said the bid to attract foreign talent was “for the sake of Singapore’s economy, society and politics” and promised it “would not disadvantage any Singaporean climbing the social ladder”.

Singapore then introduced the landed permanent residence (PR) scheme for people from Hong Kong just before 1997, wrote former civil servant Ngiam Tong Dow in his book A Mandarin and the Making of Public Policy: Reflections .

He wrote: “Other than those with criminal records, at that time, any Hong Kong family could literally obtain PR status on arrival at Changi Airport. Even then, many thumbed their noses at us.”

He said the “few” Hongkongers who accepted residency bought public sector flats then sold them on the resale market for a capital gain once prices rose. Most eventually gave up their permanent residency.

While Singapore has yet to be a top choice for Hongkongers looking to relocate, the head of property consultant Knight Frank Singapore, Tay Kah Poh, said: “It’s likely that investors could just pick up assets in a destination country as an insurance policy first, and as a diversification ploy.”

The executive director added: “Only if the domestic situation becomes untenable will they take a flight out.”

Knight Frank sold four properties in Singapore to Hongkongers in May and two last month.

Foo of OrangeTee & Tie agreed that Hongkongers would assess the situation at home before making a big move, so it made sense for there to be a time gap between the rise in interest and actual sales.

“Properties are big-ticket items,” said Christine Li, head of research for Southeast Asia at real estate services firm Cushman and Wakefield. “Transactions will take time to materialise.” ■