How a dispute over whaling could spur Japan’s exit from US Indo-Pacific trade pact: ‘Kishida has zero leeway’
- Washington is pressuring Tokyo to accept a passage that’s critical of whaling in the charter for the new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework trade deal
- But Japan has ‘zero leeway’ on backing down when it comes to whaling, an analyst says, with many Japanese supporting it, despite not eating the meat
Japan is pushing back, with one analyst saying that the inclusion of any passage criticising whaling is “an absolute non-starter” for Tokyo as it would effectively spell the end of Kishida’s government.
The whaling clause was likely included at the behest of a single congressman, he speculated, and could potentially delay or even derail the entire agreement.
Initially, the Office of the US Trade Representative wanted to include wording that would mean all IPEF signatory states agreed to a complete ban on whaling, the Financial Times reported, but that was watered down.
However, even a milder position is unacceptable to Japan, which restarted the commercial killing of whales after withdrawing from the International Whaling Commission – albeit supported by government subsidies and with quotas in place.
Publicly, Tokyo is keeping a diplomatic silence on Washington’s demands, but there are strong suggestions that Kishida’s administration would have little choice but to play no further part in the IPEF should Washington stick to its guns on the whaling clause.
The Japanese public is broadly defensive of the country’s whaling industry, although the number of people who actually eat whale meat has been decreasing year by year. Only about 1,000 tonnes of the meat were sold in 2021, down from a peak of some 233,000 tonnes in 1962.
Many people who never buy whale at a supermarket or go to a whale-meat restaurant still insist that it’s a plentiful resource that should be sustainably exploited in the same way as other countries farm beef or chicken. About 2.6 million tonnes of chicken and 1.27 million tonnes of beef is eaten in Japan each year, according to the latest available figures.
Japan’s whaling industry, which only employs an estimated 300 people nationwide, is ostensibly subsidised to provide jobs in rural areas and preserve Japanese culinary culture.
Many Japanese insist that whaling is an important part of the national culture and say countries should not impose their wills on another sovereign nation.
The ship, costing some 6 billion yen (US$41.33 million) is due to be launched next year, and aims to allow smaller, more agile vessels to hunt the whales, with their carcasses being returned to the ‘mother ship’ for storage.
Other government subsidies include support for companies that sell whale meat products at less than cost price.
While some might say that many people no longer eating whale meat speaks volumes, Yoichi Shimada, an international-relations professor at Fukui Prefectural University, said there were no signs of the public turning against whaling, meaning Kishida would have to stand up to US pressure.
“Hypothetically, if the US keeps pressuring Japan, then Kishida has no choice but to walk away from the entire agreement,” Shimada said.
Cucek agreed, adding that “Kishida has zero leeway on Japan backing down on anything to do with whaling”.
“He is in seriously hot water at home … and no political capital left to spend by kowtowing to the US on this,” he said.
“Japan has already gone rogue and left the international [whaling] organisation, so this is not a place where Japan can be flexible,” Cucek added.
Whales play a significant role in capturing carbon, says international conservation organisation WWF, noting that each great whale sequesters an estimated 33 tonnes of carbon dioxide, on average, “thus playing their part in the fight against climate change”.
Six of the 13 great whale species are endangered or vulnerable, even after decades of protection, it says. Some are caught accidentally, as by-catch. Norway and Iceland also still hunt whales.