bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

articlePageQuery

filter

article

articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle

articleListArticle

articleSeoArticle

hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle

hooksTrackPageViewArticle

hooksContentInterestArticle

articleLinkingDataContent

hooksAmpRedirectArticle

articleSchemaContent

liveArticle

advertZone

sentiment

contentLock

topics

types

sections

paywallTypes

createdDate

publishedDate

urlAlias

moreOnThisArticles

sponsorType

commentCount

authorLocations

authors

corrections

displaySlideShow

multimediaEmbed

printHeadline

seriesContainer

articleSpeeches

socialHeadline

headline

images

flag

firstTopic

glossary

flattenTypeIds

image

relatedLinks

relatedNewsletters

__typename

sponsor

pdfFiles

seriesReverseOrder

series

disableOffPlatformContent

published

updatedDate

summary

subHeadline

body

keywords

readingTime

customTimezone

liveContents

Cary Huang

Maintaining the status quo is the best policy for Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen amid the cross-strait stalemate. But Donald Trump’s presidency adds uncertainty to such an impasse.
The biggest question facing Taiwan is what Trump’s Asia diplomacy will look like and how Taipei should respond to a complicated post-Obama world order.
In the first place, Trump’s win is a setback for Tsai in that her independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party bet on a Hillary Clinton win from the start.

The reasons for that bet were simple. First, Taiwan had closer relations with the Clintons during Bill Clinton’s presidency between 1993 and 2001, which overlapped with Lee Teng-hui’s presidency in Taiwan between 1988 and 2000. The former US president had visited Taiwan several times as governor of Arkansas and after he left the White House, despite Beijing’s protests. Tsai and the DPP have no personal links with Trump.
Amazon removes some negative reviews of Megyn Kelly’s memoir after Trump fans swamp site
Second, Trump’s pledge to kill the China-excluding Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact and his isolationist foreign policy stance will probably hurt Taiwan’s interests.

Tsai planned to join the TPP to cut economic reliance on the mainland, and to break through China’s economic blockage. But Trump last week pledged to kill the 12-member pact during his first day in office, so Taipei should prepare for US withdrawal.
Sorry Trump, iPhones Should Still Be Made in China
Taiwan has striven to keep itself relevant in the increasingly complex value chains in an integrated global economy, but risks being locked out of other multilateral deals like the China-initiated, 16-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

Taiwan also risks being economically marginalised, even more so since Beijing cut off communication and exchanges with Taipei after Tsai took office in May.
Trump has cast doubt on American commitment to traditional alliances in East Asia, suggesting Japan and South Korea – two staunch US allies – should foot more of the bill for their protection. He has also spoken out against US involvement in foreign wars, which raised a question over the nation’s long-term commitment to helping defend Taiwan.
China to keep eye on Trump policies, vows to defend its trading rights
Trump’s isolationism might herald a fresh opportunity for more US weapons sales to Taiwan. Though that would boost Taiwan’s defences, it would also irk Beijing and complicate already fragile relations.
It might be music to Taiwan’s ears that the Republican National Convention included on this year’s election platform – for the first time – the “six assurances” that former president Ronald Reagan gave to Taiwan in 1982. It could also help that the previous DPP government under Chen Shui-bian between 2000 and 2008 built closer contact with a Republican US administration under George W. Bush.

And diplomatic observers might note that the Taiwan-US relationship is much deeper than just the executive branches, and the self-ruled island has long enjoyed bipartisan support on Capitol Hill.
A third of US senators belong to the Taiwan caucus, along with about half of 435 US representatives.
But the big question is whether Trump, a political novice with no strong link to the Washington establishment, will follow the party line or rely on professionals for his foreign and defence policy as all his predecessors did.
The US and Chinese economies are deeply dependent on each other, and under his “America first” mantra, Trump is unlikely to strain that relationship because of commitments Congress and previous administrations have made to Taiwan.
So the biggest uncertainty underpinning Taiwan’s diplomacy from now on hinges on whether Trump will prevail over the whole established litany, or just follow precedent.
Cary Huang, a senior writer with the South China Morning Post, has been a China affairs columnist since the 1990s


Tokyo ‘closely monitoring’ backlash from China, Japanese PM tells lawmakers

Why is China’s Liaoning carrier on a unique route amid Beijing-Tokyo tensions?

Taiwan’s ban on mainland China app RedNote makes it a top download amid fierce pushback

Rubio and Hegseth discuss Indo-Pacific security with Australian counterparts in Washington

Taiwan

Why Donald Trump might not follow US presidents’ precedent on Taiwan

Donald Trump adds uncertainty to cross-strait ties. Photo: Reuters

Former U.S. President Bill Clinton gestures as he delivers a speech entitled "Embracing Our Common Humanity: Security and Prosperity in the 21st Century," at the Taipei International Conference Center, Sunday, Feb. 27, 2005, in Taipei, Taiwan. Clinton is in Taiwan at the invitation of the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy for a whirlwind 27-hour visit. He is expected to meet and have diner with Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian. On Monday, Clinton will meet his Taiwanese fans and autograph for the Chinese version of his autobiography "My Life." (AP Photo/Jerome Favre)

Hillary Clinton, former 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, pauses while speaking at the New Yorker Hotel in New York, U.S., on Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2016. In the hours after Donald Trump's election as the 45th president of the United States, Republicans in Congress claimed a mandate for their agenda to revamp financial rules and replace Obamacare, and Clinton urged her supporters to give him a chance to govern. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

epa05322437 Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen smiles at supporters as she arrives to vote for party officials in Taipei, Taiwan, 22 May 2016. On 21 May, China threatened to cease bilateral communications with Taiwan if the island nation does not acknowledge there is ‘only one China’, a day after the new Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's inaugural address was criticized by Beijing for its ‘ambiguity’. EPA/RITCHIE B. TONGO

People hold signs as they demonstrate against the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement in Washington, DC, on November 14, 2016. / AFP PHOTO / Nicholas Kamm

This Week in Asia

Opinion

Politics

Geopolitics

Comment

News

China

World

United States & Canada

The new president-elect adds a sprinkling on unpredictability to an already fraught situation


Donald Trump

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

Sino File

Sino File | Why Donald Trump might not follow US presidents’ precedent on Taiwan

The new president-elect adds a sprinkling on unpredictability to an already fraught situation