Sino File | Trump has lost the House, not the incentive for his trade war with China
- Despite the midterm results, widespread anti-China sentiment across the US political spectrum means there’s little chance of the trade war ending any time soon
Yes, the elections were also a vote on his administration’s China policy and the troubled relationship between the world’s largest economies and chief political adversaries. Beijing believed Trump was scapegoating China for his own domestic purposes in the midterms as he succeeded in doing during the presidential campaign. Under such a presumption, Beijing had no incentive to accommodate Trump’s demands before the elections.
The results of the December 6 vote portend significant changes for how Trump will rule in the next two years, as the Democrats regained a majority in the House, although the Republicans retained control of the Senate. However, while these changes may affect Trump’s ability to accomplish his domestic goals, they may not mean much for US trade or foreign policy.
Firstly, the Democrats have historically been more in favour of labour unions and less supportive of unconstrained free trade. And in foreign policy, the Democrats have been hostile towards communist regimes and focused on China’s human rights record. Thus the Democrats’ control of the House does not suggest any softening of US policy towards China.
The current House minority leader and speaker-in-waiting Nancy Pelosi is known as a veteran anti-China hawk who applauded Trump’s punitive tariffs on China as a “leverage point” to negotiate fairer trade for the US.