Asian AngleCould Duterte’s cooperation with Beijing help Manila realise its South China Sea arbitral victory?

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is set to visit Beijing later this month, amid growing unease over Chinese vessels in the West Philippine Sea

Resource cooperation however, might help the Philippines in its bid to get China to comply with the 2016 arbitral ruling

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Rodrigo Duterte’s upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping comes amid growing unease in the West Philippine Sea. Photo: AP

Published: 8:00am, 15 Aug 2019Updated: 8:15am, 15 Aug 2019

“There is a time for everything. A time to negotiate and a time to quarrel with your enemy … a time to antagonise and a time to make peace and a time to go to war.” This telling rendition of the Bible verse Ecclesiastes 3 by Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte in his fourth State of the Nation Address last month presages the importance of his upcoming visit to Beijing.

Duterte’s fifth visit to the Chinese capital late this month comes amid growing unease in the West Philippine Sea. The massing of Chinese vessels near Pag-asa (Thitu Island), Manila’s largest occupied feature in the Spratly Islands, and the undeclared passage of Chinese survey vessels and warships in Philippine waters triggered a flurry of diplomatic protests. Manila also awaits Beijing’s actions after concluding its investigation on a June mishap at Reed Bank involving a Chinese ship that endangered 22 Filipino fishermen.

Concerns were also raised over China’s interest in developing strategic islands into gaming and economic hubs. The influx of Chinese workers in the Southeast Asian nation’s bustling online gaming industry is also generating local worries about the country being turned into China’s “sin city”.

The West Philippine Sea will loom large when Duterte meets Chinese President Xi Jinping. Duterte has said he will raise the Philippines’ 2016 arbitral victory at The Hague, which invalidated the historical basis for China’s nine-dash line claim in the South China Sea, and which China has rejected. He will also press for the early conclusion of a code of conduct in the disputed waterway, negotiated by foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and China, to avoid a repeat of the Reed Bank incident.

The Philippines’ and China's overlapping claims in the South China Sea. Graphic: SCMP

Raising the landmark award should not be much of an issue, since Duterte has repeatedly said he would do so before he steps down. The more relevant considerations are the manner in which it will be raised, and the agreement or concessions he will obtain from China. Momentum is also on the side of the code of conduct, with China and Asean last month completing the first reading of the single draft negotiating text.

Respective official positions aside, Philippine Presidential Spokesperson Salvador Panelo is confident Duterte’s intention to discuss the ruling will not sour relations with Beijing. “You know, when friends meet, they can always discuss anything under the sun. And if friendship is present, then both parties will be open to any discussion,” he said in a radio interview last Sunday.