“There is a time for everything. A time to negotiate and a time to quarrel with your enemy … a time to antagonise and a time to make peace and a time to go to war.” This telling rendition of the Bible verse Ecclesiastes 3 by Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte in his fourth State of the Nation Address last month presages the importance of his upcoming visit to Beijing. Duterte’s fifth visit to the Chinese capital late this month comes amid growing unease in the West Philippine Sea. The massing of Chinese vessels near Pag-asa (Thitu Island) , Manila’s largest occupied feature in the Spratly Islands, and the undeclared passage of Chinese survey vessels and warships in Philippine waters triggered a flurry of diplomatic protests. Manila also awaits Beijing’s actions after concluding its investigation on a June mishap at Reed Bank involving a Chinese ship that endangered 22 Filipino fishermen. When Xi meets Duterte: is the China-Philippines honeymoon over? Concerns were also raised over China’s interest in developing strategic islands into gaming and economic hubs. The influx of Chinese workers in the Southeast Asian nation’s bustling online gaming industry is also generating local worries about the country being turned into China’s “sin city”. The West Philippine Sea will loom large when Duterte meets Chinese President Xi Jinping . Duterte has said he will raise the Philippines’ 2016 arbitral victory at The Hague , which invalidated the historical basis for China’s nine-dash line claim in the South China Sea , and which China has rejected. He will also press for the early conclusion of a code of conduct in the disputed waterway, negotiated by foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and China, to avoid a repeat of the Reed Bank incident. Raising the landmark award should not be much of an issue, since Duterte has repeatedly said he would do so before he steps down. The more relevant considerations are the manner in which it will be raised, and the agreement or concessions he will obtain from China. Momentum is also on the side of the code of conduct, with China and Asean last month completing the first reading of the single draft negotiating text. Respective official positions aside, Philippine Presidential Spokesperson Salvador Panelo is confident Duterte’s intention to discuss the ruling will not sour relations with Beijing. “You know, when friends meet, they can always discuss anything under the sun. And if friendship is present, then both parties will be open to any discussion,” he said in a radio interview last Sunday. Panelo added that “we are resorting to a friendlier network of settling differences, which is negotiation. What we cannot get by invoking [the ruling], we might be able to do so through talks. Asserting something as a matter of right and principle is different from talking as friends.” Watch your kids, they might be terrorists, parents in Philippines told Duterte seems to be tapping on the silver lining opened by the arbitral ruling – a chance for cooperation. This includes traditional fishing rights in Scarborough Shoal, referred to by Manila as Panatag Shoal and Huangyan Island by Beijing. However, the asymmetry between traditional wooden Philippine fishing boats and mechanised Chinese trawlers disadvantages Filipino fishers. Hence, a fishing arrangement between the two governments should look at an equitable allocation of catch. Such an arrangement can also determine what fishing practices should be banned, what marine species should be spared, and achieve a consensus on a closed fishing season. Joint monitoring and enforcement, periodic assessment and setting aside a portion of the shoal as a marine protected area can also be tabled. This may also address the reported intimidation of Filipino fishers by Chinese vessels, especially inside the shoal’s lagoon. However, extending this arrangement to other parts of the West Philippine Sea outside the shoal would amount to legitimising the operations of more efficient foreign poachers in the west of the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. As one of the country’s most productive fishing grounds, doing so would adversely affect the livelihood of many local fisherfolk and also impact the country’s food security. This may also run afoul of its constitution, which reserves the country’s marine bounty exclusively for Filipinos. With its biggest natural gas field, Malampaya, to be exhausted by 2024, Duterte is also likely to push for joint resource development . During Xi’s state visit to Manila last November, both sides signed a memorandum of understanding on joint oil and gas development. Upstream activities in the West Philippine Sea have been suspended since 2014, and Duterte wants to lift the moratorium to meet his country’s burgeoning energy needs. In Philippines, fears of slow internet trump fears of China Duterte has opposed unilateral Philippine drilling at Reed Bank, while China’s capability to interfere in the economic activities of other claimants in the South China Sea has intensified. Hence, even if the Philippines lifts the ban, it may not necessarily address concerns over foreign intervention. But improved relations and resource cooperation can provide a stable environment conducive to risky and capital-intensive enterprises such as hydrocarbon exploration and production. On 14 August, Chinese Ambassador Zhao Jianhua meets with Philippine Foreign Secretary Teddy Locsin Jr at DFA. Both sides exchange views on preparations of President Rodrigo Roa Duterte’s upcoming visit to China and agree to work together to ensure the visit a complete success. pic.twitter.com/YwKNBEgial — ChineseEmbassyManila (@Chinaembmanila) August 14, 2019 <!--//--><![CDATA[// ><!-- //--><!]]> In sum, conflict avoidance and pragmatism may drive Duterte to focus his maritime agenda on dispute management and resource cooperation. Fast-tracking the code of conduct could reduce the likelihood of accidents and miscalculation in the South China Sea. In the interim, incident and crisis management, confidence-building measures and adherence to prevailing norms, such as the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, would help. Resource cooperation, on the other hand, can be seen as efforts to find low-hanging fruit for implementing the arbitration award while achieving the Philippines’ resource goals. While China disregards the ruling for obvious reasons, Beijing knows it cannot completely ignore it. In fact, openness towards resource cooperation may present a viable avenue for the Philippines’ big northern neighbour to comply with the award without saying so, thus saving face. Connect with us on Twitter and Facebook