The Trump administration’s green light for the sale of 66 fighter jets to Taiwan will not make much operational military impact. But it delivers a strong message about the US commitment to defend the East Asian democracy. And, more notably, it underscores a significant change in Washington’s geopolitical considerations under its “Indo-Pacific” strategy, which aims to contain China . The sale will be the largest and most significant shipment of weaponry to the self-ruled island in decades, since George H.W. Bush approved the sale of 150 fighter jets in 1992. In 2011, the Barack Obama government rejected Taiwan’s request to buy F-16C/D planes, but agreed to upgrade the island’s F-16A/B fighters, bought in 1992. The United States is obliged to help defend Taiwan by providing “arms of defensive character” under the Taiwan Relations Act, which was passed in 1979 when Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. Given Taiwan’s relatively small economy and defence budget compared with Beijing’s, this sale will hardly tip the military balance, which has been tilting towards the mainland. Under President Xi Jinping , Beijing has sought to expand its military power and has stepped up threats to take Taiwan by force, if necessary. It has increased navy and air force “encirclement” patrols around the island since Tsai Ing-wen , of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, came to power in 2016. In return, Tsai has stepped up countermeasures. Last week, Taipei unveiled its largest defence spending increase in more than a decade, to NT$411.3 billion (US$13.1 billion) for next year. But that figure is only about 5 per cent of the mainland’s US$250 billion for 2018. China repeats threat to sanction US companies over Taiwan arms sales Any arms sale is based as much on political considerations as defence needs, and this time the White House may use it to underscore America’s policy overhaul in US-China relations vis-a-vis Taiwan. Donald Trump signalled this change from the beginning of his term, taking the unusual step of speaking by phone with Tsai in 2016 when he was president-elect. US officials are now talking about efforts to “normalise” the arms sale process. Randall Schriver, assistant secretary of defence for the Asia-Pacific region, said recently that Washington would “treat Taiwan as a normal security systems partner”. The administration rolled out a long-awaited overhaul of US arms export policy last year, aimed at expanding sales to a number of allies. It will make supplying weapons to Taiwan “routine” business. Previous governments approved a package only once every few years. In the past, the US sent warships through the Taiwan Strait annually, but Trump has this yearmade the manoeuvres a monthly mission. He seems to want to do the same on arms sales. He approved a package in 2017 worth US$1.42 billion which included technical support for early warning radar, high-speed anti-radiation missiles, torpedoes and missile components. Last year he signed off on the sale of US$330 million of spare parts for F-16 fighter planes and other military aircraft. The frequency has picked up further this year, with the president approving three rounds of assistance. In April, he gave the green light to the delivery of a US$500 million package that included training, maintenance and logistics support for Taiwan’s F-16 fighters based at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona. In July, he agreed to sell US$2.2 billion worth of weapons, not least 108 Abrams tanks and 250 Stinger surface-to-air missiles. The sales apparently serve Trump’s domestic agenda amid a growing bipartisan consensus in their favour. Over many weeks, lawmakers from bothmajor parties questioned whether the White House would scuttle the latest sale in the hope of greasing the wheels on a US-China trade deal. The announcement of the F-16 package was therefore immediately hailed by party leaders in both houses on Capitol Hill. US arms sales show Taiwan’s security is non-tradeable to the US Past administrations took into account the timing of arms sales to avoid upsetting Beijing at critical moments, but this time the sale comes at the worst time amid growing acrimony. Trump’s impatience over slow progress on a trade deal may have played a part in the decision. However, the sale also comes as the US and China remain locked in conflict over a host of other critical issues – military confrontation in the South China Sea, independence sentiment in Taiwan, and, lately, mass protests in Hong Kong. By choosing the worst moment to announce the package, the US has shown its willingness to confront China even when their relations are at their lowest ebb. Taiwan to get upgraded F-16V fighter jets after US arms sale approved The move could be seen as an American effort to boost Tsai’s January re-election bid. Voters may see the sales as a White House endorsement of her administration. The Taiwanese president faces an uphill battle at the polls and is pinning her hopes on painting her leadership as a bulwark against a repressive and assertive Chinese government. The position may endear her to the Trump administration, which is filled with China hawks. The arms sales also serve as a signal to China and the region that the US wants to remain a force for peace and order in Asia. With the “normalisation” of sales to Taiwan, Trump is apparently trying to also “normalise” military-to-military relations between the two democracies and long-time allies, despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties. This will severely challenge Beijing’s cherished “one China” policy. The US has long maintained strategic ambiguity under the Taiwan Relations Act to keep Beijing and Taipei guessing about the circumstances needed for intervention in a military conflict. Trump now seems to show little interest in maintaining that ambiguity. The National Defence Authorisation Act of 2019 and that of 2020 call for strengthened US-Taiwan military cooperation and state that the Taiwan Relations Act and Six Assurances are both cornerstones of relations. The Reagan administration reinforced the US commitment to Taiwan’s defence with the announcement of the Six Assurances in 1982. Apparently, Washington now treats Taiwan as an independent actor, a reliable ally, and a valuable partner in its Indo-Pacific strategy. ■ Cary Huang is a veteran China affairs columnist, having written on the topic since the early 1990s