As in the United States, or indeed in many other Western democracies, Taiwanese presidential elections have long been a two-horse race. In Taiwan’s case, elections are contested between the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Kuomintang (KMT). These two parties have taken turns in government and opposition since the debut of direct polls in 1996. In a wider sense, the elections have also been a platform for debate on the island’s relations with communist mainland China. The camps are split into the independence-leaning “pan-green” coalition led by the DPP and the Beijing-friendly “pan-blue” coalition led by the KMT. The two-party system has a winner-takes-all rule in elections, as the chance of third-party candidates winning a major election is remote. However, this has not deterred some independent candidates from joining President Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP and the KMT’s Han Kuo-yu, the popular Kaohsiung mayor, in standing in the January 2020 polls – which will also include legislative elections. Wary of China, the US is normalising Taiwan ties with bigger and more frequent arms sales Party unity is therefore critical, as evidenced by the 2000 election when the pan-blue camp was divided and represented by two groups of candidates – Lien Chan and Vincent Siew of the KMT, and James Soong and Chang Chau-hsiung as independents – which were defeated by Chen Shui-bian and Annette Lu Hsiu-lien of the DPP. The Chen-Lu pair gained just 39.3 per cent of the total vote, with Soong-Chang getting 36.8 per cent and Lien-Siew, 23.1. Recently there have been two surprise developments in the election race: former vice-president Annette Lu has vowed to join the running, while Taiwanese billionaire-turned-politician and KMT veteran Terry Gou has dropped out. Both decisions could have some impact on the result. Gou, who quit the KMT last week, had been expected to run for the presidency after publicly flirting with the idea since losing the party primary to Kaohsiung mayor Han in July. His presidency bid as an independent would have dealt a deadly blow to the island’s embattled opposition party, as it would sap support for Han. Gou trailed the two main candidates by several percentage points, according to various opinion polls. He would have 23.2 per cent of the vote if he had joined the race, against Tsai’s 38.7 per cent and Han’s 26.7 per cent, according to the Cross-Strait Policy Association. Therefore, if Gou were to join the race, a repeat of the scenario in 2000 was highly likely. Hong Kong’s extradition protests may have given Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, a boost Beijing won’t appreciate Lu, who served as the country’s vice-president between 2000 and 2008 and is known for her advocacy of Taiwan’s independence, announced her departure from the ruling DPP in May last year, due to her disagreement with the Tsai administration on a host of issues. Her announcement has rattled the pan-green camp, as her candidacy would complicate Tsai’s re-election bid. Party heavyweights have called on her to put off her campaign for the sake of maintaining unity. As the DPP’s only official candidate, Tsai is seeking not only to unite her party but also rally the pro-independence movement behind her. She needs to do so because some localist parties and diehard pro-independence groups, which have questioned her determination to defend the island’s self-rule against encroachment from Beijing, might shift their support to Lu. There are other uncertainties, too. Speculation is rife that four-time presidential candidate James Soong will run again in 2020 on a joint ticket with independent Ko Wen-je, the mayor of Taipei. Gou is still eligible to run if he joins Soong’s ticket. On top of this, the 2020 polls are likely to serve as a de facto referendum on relations with mainland China, due to a series of recent developments under the presidency of Xi Jinping . The polls have also become a test of the complicated three-way relationship between Taipei, Beijing and Washington due to escalating tensions in the past couple of years. Cary Huang is a veteran China affairs columnist, having written on this topic since the early 1990s Bearing all these in mind, three major events outside the island’s political jurisdiction will be decisive in its 2020 election. Firstly, Hong Kong’s anti-government protests and riots have already pushed cross-strait relations to the forefront of the election agenda. The demonstrations have already substantially bolstered Tsai’s political position against her opponents. The impasse over the protests, which have lasted for more than three months, and the way Beijing deals with their aftermath will have a huge impact on the Taiwanese elections, as they will give the Taiwanese people an insight into how the island would fare in the event of a peaceful unification under “one country, two systems”. Secondly, Beijing’s tactics in dealing with the elections will also have a significant impact on the results. Experience has shown that Beijing’s aggressive rhetoric and assertive intimidation of Taiwanese voters does not help, but a pragmatic approach would. Beijing’s increasingly hawkish stance and approach towards Taiwan since Tsai came to office in 2016 have already bolstered Tsai and her DPP’s position. Beijing has cut off all exchanges and restricted mainlanders from travelling to the island. The People’s Liberation Army has increased war games around the island and China’s diplomatic offensives have cost Taiwan seven allies. Its latest move has been to pressure the Solomon Islands and the Pacific island nation of Kiribati to cut diplomatic ties with Taipei. Thirdly, the US factor has become more critical amid the escalating confrontation between the world’s two biggest economies over the past two years. For years, diplomats in Washington had viewed the DPP with scepticism, if not outright concern, for fear of rocking US-China relations . However, in a dramatic shift in their political calculus, the US may now see Tsai and her DPP-led democratic island as a bulwark against Chinese expansionism. Officials are now talking about Taiwan as a crucial ally in the administration’s “Indo-Pacific” strategy. Never before have Washington or Beijing been so important for Taiwanese voters amid Xi’s rising rhetoric on reunification and the threat of force he made in a keynote policy statement this year. Whether Washington and Beijing can make a breakthrough in their year-long tariff war in the coming months will also affect Taiwan’s presidential race. So the election will also be a Game of Thrones between befriending Trump and Xi. ■ Cary Huang is a veteran China affairs columnist, having written on this topic since the early 1990s