China, Japan and South Korea must choose: history or economics
- The three countries have a complicated rivalry over war history and territorial claims, but economic cooperation remains their biggest bond
- Leaders recently shared their desire for a free-trade agreement in a market of over 1.5 billion people
The three East Asian powers have taken turns at being the envy of the world with their miraculous growth after World War II, first seen by Japan, then South Korea and China. Today, China is Asia’s largest economy, Japan second and South Korea fourth. Combined, they account for a quarter of global economic output.
Since the first summit in 2008, bilateral relations between Beijing and Tokyo, Beijing and Seoul, and Tokyo and Seoul have been locked in bitter disputes over war history, territory, regional security and other issues.
The modern history of East Asia saw Japan colonising China and Korea, followed by the 1950-53 Korean war that divided Korea into two opposite alliances, in which communist China fought on the side of North Korea and Japan on the side of South Korea, led by the United States.
Relations have become more complicated following dramatic geopolitical changes in the last few decades, which saw China become the world’s fastest-rising major power; Japan the world’s fastest-declining one; and South Korea an emerging regional economic and diplomatic power.
The Sichuan summit celebrated more than 20 years of cooperation, originally dating back to the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. However, trilateral initiatives seeking to build confidence and trust have been slow to get going, not just because of the historical feuds but also because of divergent or conflicting geopolitical interests.
Sino-Korean relations also experienced a major setback following Seoul’s agreement to deploy the US-built Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile system in 2016 which Beijing viewed as a threat to its security. This led to an unofficial boycott of South Korean goods and movies, as well as a steep decline in the number of tourists.
Explained: what’s driving Japan’s escalating feud with South Korea?
Ties between Tokyo and Seoul have hit rock bottom in recent months over trade and a bitter feud related to Japan’s 1910-1945 occupation of the Korean peninsula. In late November, Seoul narrowly opted to continue an intelligence-sharing pact with Tokyo, reversing its prior decision to withdraw from the accord after intervention from Washington.
China is Japan’s largest trading partner and Japan is China’s third-largest export market. South Korea is also an important trade partner for both China and Japan.
Beijing sees the trade pact as an important part of its efforts to increase regional economic integration and diversify its markets in the face of escalating trade tensions with the United States. The three-way trade accord would lead to a tariff reduction on around 92 per cent of tradeable goods, making it one of the biggest multilateral free-trade deals China has negotiated.
China, South Korea and Japan pledge cooperation on regional security
Beijing is also trying to exploit its two Asian neighbours’ increasing frictions with the US. The Trump administration threatened to punish Tokyo and Seoul over its complaints about the cost of maintaining US troops there. They are also at odds over trade issues.
However, Beijing’s shift from its “low-key” diplomacy to a high-profile and increasingly assertive posture in recent years has triggered distrust and animosity in the hearts of its Asian neighbours. The Pew Research Centre’s Global Attitudes survey in September suggested a record 85 per cent of Japanese and 63 per cent of South Koreans view China unfavourably, despite the improving ties.
Viewing China’s fast-rising military clout as a major threat to their security, Tokyo and Seoul have moved to forge closer defence ties with Washington, joining in a tripartite security system that would play a critical role in deterring China, along with North Korea and Russia.
But Tokyo and Seoul, as like-minded US allies, will side with Washington in the event of any military confrontation between the world’s two biggest rivals and political adversaries.
There is no historical period that offers richer theoretical arguments and insight into diplomacy and geopolitical strategy than the legendary Three Kingdoms era between AD220 and 280. One lesson from that time is that weaker states often ally themselves in an effort to resist the strongest, as seen by the alliance between Shu, based in Sichuan where the trilateral summit was held, and Wu in East China, against the Northern power of Wei.
The era was also full of tricks and conspiracies in battles, either at the negotiating table or on the field, as rivals lacked confidence and trust in each other. ■
Cary Huang is a veteran China affairs columnist, having written on the topic since the early 1990s