Opinion | Cambodia, Indonesia, Vietnam: which defence model will Philippines follow as US ties wither?

Over the past 70 years, the Philippines’ alliance with the United States has involved many twists and turns. Though not without its controversies, it has shown a remarkable ability to adapt to the demands of the times – encompassing traditional security, counterterrorism, disaster relief and maritime exercises.

Until now, the biggest shock to ties came in the early 1990s with the closure of US military bases in the Philippines at the end of the Cold War. But President Rodrigo Duterte’s announcement this month that he would terminate the two decade-old Visiting Forces Agreement could represent something bigger: a gradual erosion of the alliance, which will have an enduring impact on both countries’ strategic calculus – regardless of how much they might try to play down its effect.

While the move is unlikely to halt US freedom of navigation exercises, it may hamper the American military’s ability to immediately respond to incidents in the South China Sea, impair its forward deployed presence and undercut its post-war strategic depth.

The unravelling of the US-Philippines alliance and President Donald Trump’s dismissiveness towards it may also engender spillover effects in other key US allies such as Thailand and South Korea. Alliances have been one of America’s traditional strengths. As it rolls out its Indo-Pacific strategy, gaining more – not losing one – would play to its advantage. So with the clock ticking on the 180-day transition window before the VFA is nullified, there is still plenty of time to salvage the agreement.